Harry Roque’s lament on Senate bid

Name recognition is crucial. But aside from being “aware” of the candidate for senator, voters must prefer him to dozens of other aspirants. Harry Roque and Bong Go meet the first requirement but flunk in the second

“... In this country, it’s the children of the senators, those who have been in politics, who stand the chance of being elected. I’m just an ordinary human being. I don’t belong to any political family. I’m not rich...” -- Harry Roque, Sept. 24, 2018

Here, the lawyer, former congressman, now presidential spokesman Harry Roque was talking about himself and not for his boss President Duterte. Pulse Asia just released the names of those whom the country would elect as senators if the elections were held on Sept. 1 to 7. And Roque landed #29-36, remotely far from the Magic 12.

It was a lament for himself and others who aspire for the Senate and can’t get nearer than in their mind, “the unreachable star,” “the impossible dream.” Awareness

Well, not quite. Not all of them lose hope easily. Despite the poor showing in the surveys, some would still run: to gain foothold in the electoral plain, experience in campaigning, and exposure to voters, which might help in the next election. Sen. Risa Hontiveros lost two races before she finally won in 2016. Or some abnormal event might thrust one into national consciousness. Trillanes and Honasan were elected after staging a siege and a series of military coups.

Name recall or household name is crucial. That means the name is recognizable and pops up in the voter’s mind, when asked in a survey or printed in the ballot. With or without a sample ballot, the voter tends to pick the familiar name. Advantage

Thus, the edge of children or grandchildren of presidents (Bongbong Marcos, Serge Osmeña, Jinggoy Estrada, Sara Duterte-Carpio), candidates for president (Grace Poe, Nancy Binay), or senators (Sonny Angara, Pia Cayetano, Koko Pimentel).

Being elected also gives advantage to those seeking reelection or making a comeback. In Pulse Asia’s September survey, 13, out of 66 names, have “statistical chance of winning” and they are returning or incumbent legislators. Call it accretion: increase in value of one’s name by getting elected and mounting the national stage. Preference

But one’s being widely known (name recall or household name) is the first and essential phase. Yet it doesn’t clinch the seat all at once. Surveys determine public awareness; yet, on top of that, it also finds out public preference or choices. Like, OK, you know the guy, you’re aware of him, will you vote for him?

Robin Padilla, Dingdong Dantes, and even Mar Roxas are widely known (96 percent on voters’ awareness) but only one, Roxas, might move into the winning circle.

Being known, says one survey guru, doesn’t mean being preferred. Roque, the whining aspirant, has a decent 70 percent awareness but only 7.7 percent prefers him and he ranks #27-36. Duterte’s aide Bong Go, for all his campaign gimmicks and photo-bombs on his boss and most everyone who’s prominent, got 14.1 percent and is listed #22-27. Flukes

There are flukes, such as some actors (Bong Revilla, Lito Lapid) and sports personalities (Manny Pacquiao), whose A-list status puts them up front even if voters know about their inadequacy in legislative knowhow. But those cases are few and far between.

Increasingly, voters are wary about celebrities whom they may idolize for basking in the limelight but scoff at their capacity to serve as senators. Bato’s numbers

It would take a lot of work and luck for the likes of Harry Roque or Bong Go to leap from cellar to the floor that 12 would-be winners occupy. Only Ronald de la Rosa, the president’s ex-PNP chief and head jailer, has the high numbers: 94 percent in awareness and #11-17 in ranking.

Bato de la Rosa might be carried by his boss’s popularity or struck down, depending upon how the public would regard the president on election day.