Economic reports compromised

The partial shutdown of the US government has begun to make it harder to assess the health of the economy by delaying or distorting key reports on growth, spending and hiring.

Government data on home construction and retail sales, for example, won’t be released next week because staffers who compile those reports have been furloughed.

The retail sales report provides a snapshot of consumer spending, which fuels more than two-thirds of the economy. With Macy’s and Kohl’s having said Thursday that their holiday sales were weaker than expected, a broader gauge of retail spending would have provided important clarity.

In addition, the next report on the economy’s overall growth, set for Jan. 30, won’t be released if the shutdown remains in effect. Even if the government has fully reopened by then, federal workers won’t likely have had enough time to produce the scheduled report on the nation’s gross domestic product.

Not all agencies are closed. Congress approved funding last year for the Labor Department, so the government’s next monthly jobs report will be released as scheduled on Feb. 1. But it’s unclear how long the department will be able to issue jobs reports after that.

Other economic reports have already been missed. They include a monthly report on factory orders that was scheduled for Monday. That report typically provides insights into how much US companies are spending on large equipment.

Inflation data will also be affected: The consumer price index will be released Friday morning as scheduled, because it is prepared by the Labor Department. But the preferred inflation gauge is published by Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, which is closed. And because the Agriculture Department is closed, future reports on wholesale prices and import prices won’t include farm-related data.

Even after the government fully reopens, weeks will likely be needed before all the postponed reports can be prepared and released.

“It may take some time to get a ‘clean’ read on the economy,” economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said Thursday. /