Peace talks in Sona

PRESIDENT Rodrigo Duterte continued his tirade against communist rebels during his State of the Nation Address (Sona) in front of Congress at the Batasang Pambansa complex last Monday, capping it with a talk with militants at the People’s Sona 2017 outside the building. Tuesday and yesterday, he engaged Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) founding chairman Jose Ma. Sison in a verbal exchange.

These are interesting times for the peace talks between the Government of the Republic of the Philippines (GRP) and the National Democratic Front (NDF). Yet even as the President sounded vehement in his vow to stop talking with the rebels, Malacañang spokespersons a day after the Sona said that the peace talks have not been officially put off. Duterte himself has not issued an order on the matter.

But first some clarifications. The President claimed in his Sona that Sison has colon cancer and that the Norway government has been footing his medical bills. Sison, 78, has issued a statement that he does not have cancer, does not frequent Norway but rather stays in The Netherlands often and that a Dutch foundation paid a big chunk of his medical bulls. So now it’s his word against that of Duterte.

Anyway, post-Sona developments have given people hope that the peace talks won’t be fully scuttled resulting in the declaration by both sides of an all-out-war. While government has announced its intention to re-arrest the NDF consultants who were released from jail to join the talks, they haven’t been arrested yet. NDF recommendees have not also been kicked out from the Duterte Cabinet.

I say the spark that lit the fire that is the verbal exchange between Duterte and the revolutionary Left has been the failure by both sides to sign a bilateral ceasefire agreement that would have prevented the skirmishes between the rebels and government troops in the past few days from happening. The President is obviously obsessed with a ceasefire but the rebels are obviously isn’t as enthusiastic.

The reason for the rebels’lack of enthusiasm can be gleaned from their statements the past several months. They apparently see a ceasefire as an emasculation of the armed struggle aspect of its strategy, especially because the talks may lengthen for years (an example would be the peace talks between the GRP and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front). Their stand is therefore to discuss the proposed social and economic reforms first and talk about a truce later.

But what will happen if government fully ends the peace talks? The violence would escalate, of course. And considering history, I doubt if the AFP would find it easy to “crush” the rebels like what some Duterte social media trolls are saying. Unlike the Maute group, whose offensive is focused only on Marawi City, the CPP’s armed wing, the operation of the New People’s Army (NPA) is nationwide in scope. And unlike the Maute group, the NPA’s preferred mode is guerrilla warfare.

In war, there are no victors, only losers. Take that from someone who has seen up close the effects on communities of the war government troops waged against the rebels in the past.