PAGASA: El Niño still uncertain to hit Phl

If indeed an El Niño phenomenon will set in this year, some parts of the country may experience a dry condition, according to an official of the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)-Cebu.

A dry condition is the initial stage before a dry spell or drought happens.

However, there is still a “high” improbability that El Niño, which has been predicted to occur on the second half of the year, would indeed hit us, said Engineer Alfredo Quiblat, Jr., officer-in-charge of PAGASA-Cebu.

“There is 50 percent chance that the El Niño threshold will be reached in the second half of the year. But climate models from different prediction centers across the world have not coincided yet,” he told The FREEMAN over a phone interview yesterday.

Earlier, the state weather bureau announced that the sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific has stabilized to neutral conditions and is expected to continue until May this year.

This means, neither an El Niño nor a La Niña is expected to develop in the equatorial Pacific basin within this period. However, some climate analyses suggest that there are chances for El Niño development later in the year.

Quiblat said that there is a possibility that a dry condition may be felt this year if indeed an El Niño episode will push through.

“But for now, predictions about the El Niño are still unclear because there is a high uncertainty on the forecasts issued at this time. We still have to ascertain very well if indeed there will be an El Niño,” he said.

He added El Niño in the Philippines is commonly associated with deficiency of rain.

According to PAGASA-Cebu, a dry condition is the initial stage during El Niño episodes before a dry spell or drought, which is the most extreme event.

It noted that a dry condition happens when there will be two consecutive months of below normal rainfall condition. This means, there is 21 percent to 60 percent reduction of the monthly rainfall volume.

Quiblat, however, assured that there is nothing to worry for now since the rainfall conditions from April to July is forecast to be near normal.

He still advised the public to be updated on the advisories issued by PAGASA, as significant changes in the climatic pattern may occur.

B. Miasco/GAN