How much will the Marcoses return?

The DU30 story of the offer of the Marcos family to return part of their "hidden/stolen" wealth is very intriguing and strange. The family have neither confirmed nor denied the story so it is getting a lot of negative and positive reactions, comments, and suggestions. Is there really a possibility that this will happen? And how much will be returned? Let us get the available facts and analyze the probability.

From already known and published data, Marcos was supposedly able to get 1/3 of the foreign loans during his term which was $25 billion, so this would amount to $8 billion. In the inventory of what the family was able to bring to Hawaii, there was some $1 billion in currencies and negotiable certificates of deposits. Then there is the P170 billion which was recovered over the years by PCGG, which translates to slightly over $3 billion. From these figures and other sources, it was estimated that Marcos was able to get $10 billion, which landed him in the Guinness Book of Records in terms of plundered wealth.

Marcos was known to be conservative in his investment decisions, so it would be safe to assume that 50 percent were in foreign currencies placed abroad and 50 percent were in domestic investments in the crony companies at that time. There were some real property investments in New York and in other places but the bulk of the Marcos foreign investments were in liquid assets like bank deposits, bonds, and other negotiable instruments. These liquid investments did not yield high returns and did not appreciate much in value as compared to the domestic investments, but the long years, more than doubled these investments. The domestic investments in the crony companies would have at least multiplied in value by 10 times, but these were not necessarily liquid investments and there was the issue of whether these investments were acknowledged and surrendered by the nominees of the family.

Net of what has been recovered by the PCGG, some investment losses, and what have not been surrendered by the nominees, it would be a good estimate that the family would still be worth $3 to $4 billion with at least 50 percent in liquid assets easily convertible to cash. There may be gold bars but not much really. The 7,000 tons in gold bullions is a tall story as this is more gold than in Fort Knox or in any gold storage facility in the world.

As to the story that the return of some of this wealth is to help cover the expected budget deficit of the government for 2017 and beyond, this is not exactly credible. DBM Sec. Diokno's projected budget deficit for 2017 is P480 billion which is less than 4 percent of GDP. And we are trying to increase this deficit to up to 5 percent of GDP to ramp up our infrastructure spending. While a $1 billion would cover 10 percent of the 2017 deficit, it is not that critical. It will just be like the P30 billion tax and fines settlement of the Mighty Tobacco Corp. in terms of impact on government finances.

I am more inclined to believe that this "Return of Wealth" proposal is a political and propaganda play. It could be to initiate a political peace and generate political influence for the 2019 and the 2022 elections. But there is also a downside to this political ploy, since making the offer is a tacit admission of wrongdoing which will resurrect all the sins of the Marcos years. The probability of the occurrence of this "Return of Wealth" is a low 20 percent.

‘I am more inclined to believe that this "Return of Wealth" proposal is a political and propaganda play. It could be to initiate a political peace

and generate political influence for the 2019 and

the 2022 elections.’