What not to expect from the ASEAN Summit

The ASEAN Summit, the 31st meeting of the ten heads of state, which coincides with the association’s 50th founding anniversary, is largely ceremonial The leaders shall be joined by 11 other world leaders in the region to socialize, discern, and spy on each other. The declarations and the statements made there are mostly motherhood statements. Ministers and secretaries of foreign affairs shall avoid making specific and detailed commitments binding their respective governments. There are cocktails, state dinners, ceremonial toasts, and evening socials, with the wives parading in the gallery like beauty contestants in the final rounds and the heads of states dressed in full regalia like peacocks displaying their symbols of powers and prestige.

The big powers, represented by leaders like US President Donald Trump, Russia Prime Minister Dmitry Mevdeved (on behalf of Vladimir Putin), and as China Prime Minister Lequiang (on behalf of Party chairman Xin Jinping) are just attending the summit to promote the interests of the Americans, Russians, and Chinese, respectively in Asia and the Pacific basin. The same is true with leaders of India, Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, and of the observer-nations, Papua New Guinea and Timor Leste.

Thus, it is silly for us to expect that when President Rodrigo Duterte shall have a brief bilateral meeting with the Chinese leader, we shall settle our territorial dispute. Not having honored the verdict issued by the International Arbitration Panel in The Hague, we do not expect China to suddenly turn around and hand Kalayaan shoal over to us. There is a long way to go, and the ASEAN Summit may not be the proper venue to settle this dispute. We cannot even expect the ASEAN 10 to unanimously issue a declaration supporting our position. Myanmar and Laos PDR are fiercely loyal to China and will never sign any document adverse to their benefactor.

Neither can we expect a strong condemnation of North Korea because the members loyal to China may not want to antagonize it. All we can expect is a mild and very diplomatic declaration calling for peace and respect for the rule of law in the Pacific and in Asia. We cannot even expect a commitment from Trump to return to us the Balangiga bells. Nor any concessions related to our veterans who fought for the US during WWII. These matters are immaterial and irrelevant to the ASEAN agenda.

And so, we should not expect any earthshaking declarations from the summit. These are all ceremonies and pleasantries, more of a social gathering rather than a serious negotiation on substantive issues. It is all a show of pageantry and protocols rather than content and substance. But it is still worthwhile that leaders warm up to each other. This is good for regional and global peace and harmony.