PAGASA: 70% chance El Niño will hit Phl

The probability of an El Niño phenomenon occurring this year has risen to nearly 70 percent based on the recent monitoring of the state weather bureau.

Latest data from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) showed that the chances of drought to happen towards the end of the year has risen by 8 percent to 68 percent from the 60 percent recorded back in July.

While no pattern has been observed over time about the occurrence of El Niño, and its counterpart La Niña, such events are considered normal because of their recurrence.

Alfredo Quiblat Jr., officer-in-charge at PAGASACebu, said that on average, an El Niño may occur every four years.

Quiblat clarified that a mere occurrence of an El Niño could not be directly attributed to the so-called climate change. But this debated issue has, he added, somehow contributed to the variation of the intensity of an El Niño.

Quiblat said that according to observations, the intensity of reoccurring El Niño has been increasing compared to its preceding event.

He said the 2015-2016 El Niño episode was the strongest so far, surpassing the highest record in 1997-98.

El Niño is commonly associated with the unusual warming of sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific that results to reduced rainfall in the Philippines.

Quiblat said people should keep monitoring for updates to check whether an El Niño event may be declared this year.

He said an El Niño brings devastating impacts to the agricultural sector as it may cause drought. It may also lead to scarcity of water and contribute to the increase in electricity consumption. —

Miasco/JMD

May B.