PAGASA warns public to prepare for El Niño

Prepare for the worst scenario, so warned the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) to the public and disaster managers as an El Niño phenomenon is more likely to develop this year.

If this event happens, dry spell may be felt in the first quarter of 2019.

PAGASA-Cebu Officer-in-Charge Alfredo Quiblat, Jr. warned local government units, especially their disaster units, to plan ahead as higher chances are seen for an El Niño event to occur within this year based from recent analysis.

On the August 29 climate outlook forum, PAGASA reported that there is probability for the country to experience dry spell in the first quarter of 2019.

It cited that there is 65 percent chance for El Niño to develop between September, October and November, and these probabilities may be increasing thereafter.

If not, an El Niño occurrence may start in December, said Quiblat.

“It seems that climatologists are already sure that an El Niño event will happen this year… But we still don’t know as to the intensity of the El Niño, whether it will be weak, moderate or strong,” he told The FREEMAN over a phone interview.

If indeed an El Niño will develop in the last quarter of 2018, he said its effect such as a dry spell may be felt in the first quarter of 2019.

This scenario means there may be drier days in January and February in the Philippines.

“Because as an effect of an El Niño, there will be lesser rains in the western portion of the Pacific that includes Philippines. Its effect in the eastern portion is also the opposite as these areas will experience more rains,” Quiblat elaborated.

If basing from the forecast rainfall condition this September until the succeeding months, there is already an indication that an El Niño is favorably to happen, Quiblat added.

Based from predictions, he said Cebu, including the other parts of the country, may be receiving smaller amount of rain beginning this month.

On the same forum, PAGASA noted that Visayas is expected to receive below the normal rainfall average this month and in October.

Rainfall condition by November to December is predicted to be generally near normal.

But on January and February, Visayas may experience generally way below to below normal rainfall condition.

Quiblat advised that households should optimize the use of water in their daily consumption starting today.

He said local government units should activate their precautionary actions, and should be ready for the worst scenario.

With this, disaster managers should map out ahead necessary actions on how to mitigate the adverse impact of the El Niño, especially when there will be scarcity of water.