Experts: COVD cases to hit 60T by end-July
Researchers estimated the number of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in the country could soar to 60,000 by the end of July as the Philippines is still experiencing “significant” community transmission of the illness.
A new study from OCTA Research—composed of professors from the University of the Philippines and the University of Santo Tomas—also projected that deaths related to COVID-19 may reach 1,300 by end of July.
Currently, the coronavirus pandemic has so far sickened 36,438 people in the Philippines. Of the figure, 1,255 have died while 9,956 have recovered.
The current reproduction number— which represents the number of people who may be infected by a confirmed case—in the country was estimated at 1.28, which indicated that the COVID-19 pandemic is not yet on the downward trend, the researchers said. Ideally, the reproductive number should be below one.
“Based on the current number of cases in the Philippines (including uncategorized cases) and assuming the trends continue, this projects to more than 60,000 COVID-19 cases by July 31, with 1,300 deaths,” the experts said.
The projection of 60,000 cases by end-July, however, was based on the lower end of the estimated 60,000 to 70,000 cases.
“We emphasize that the projected increase in cases and deaths can be prevented by rapidly identifying and breaking chains of viral transmission,” the researchers said.
The group earlier projected that COVID-19 infections in the country would reach 40,000 by end-June.
PROJECTIONS FOR MANILA, CEBU
According to the researchers, community spread of the virus is “uneven” across the archipelago but “Central Visayas, especially Cebu City, has significantly higher transmission rates than the rest of the country.”
Cebu City was reverted to enhanced community quarantine starting June 16 after it saw a spike in virus infections. Cebu province is expected to have 15,000 cases by the end of July if ECQ remains implemented. But if restrictions on movement are relaxed, COVID-19 infections may swell between 20,000 and 30,000 by July 31.
Meanwhile, Metro Manila may see 27,000 cases by end of July if transmission decreases. Aside from Cebu and Metro Manila, Rizal and Leyte were also classified “highrisk” areas.
‘RECALIBRATE’ STRATEGIES
The researchers urged the government to reexamine and recalibrate its strategies in combating the health crisis.
They called on the government to test a minimum of 10,000 and 20,000 individuals in Metro Manila and the Philippines, respectively, per day, and conduct aggressive and effective contact tracing.