Crisis of miscalculations

The war in Ukraine, as a whole, is a crisis of miscalculations. The United States, eternally leery of Russia but sapped of energy to fight yet another of its unending wars and having to contend with increasingly acrimonious and violent issues at home, wants to cripple that country without having to go into a shooting war.

If it can get Russia to fire the first shot without having to endanger American lives, it can then set into motion a different kind of warfare that can just be as devastating to that country and make it less of a threat to the USA. And so it kept provoking Russia with threats of encirclement by NATO and other allies. When the NATO membership of Ukraine finally seemed eminent, Vladimir Putin snapped.

But it was not to the immediate delight of Joe Biden. While it was the plan of the US all along to force the hand of Putin so the pretext can be had to launch economic sanctions against Russia and cripple it just as any shooting war would, Biden never thought Putin would act at the time that he did. Europe was not prepared to go without Russia's gas. And the world was not prepared to go minus Ukraine's food and oil.

Putin himself grossly miscalculated his war, thinking Ukraine can be subdued in a matter of weeks. The war is inexorably marching toward its first year with no clear winner emerging. And Biden, woe unto him for severely miscalculating that Putin will quickly capitulate once the sanctions bite. As it is now, the broken supply chains, food shortages, and high prices are driving the world into a recessive spiral.

Putin may have pulled the actual trigger of war. But it was the United States that set the conditions that drove Russia down the path it had taken. And it erred badly when it thought a Russia-Ukraine war would stay a Russia-Ukraine war, with the toll confined to just within the conflict zone. Whoever hatched the grand design to precipitate a war by proxy did not take into account the economy is global.

The worst miscalculation of all was in thinking the United States would be insulated from the fallout of its own economic sanctions. But as the world's leading market economy, that is next to impossible. And with the next election looming fast and large, Biden is almost at a panic. Reelection, prices, supplies, guns, hate, abortion --Biden now has too much on his plate for lucidity and steady knees.

And China is not even on the plate. If the world does spin out of control, it is those with the most eggs in the basket who stand to lose the most. And it should be pretty clear to everyone who that is. The US, even without direct finger-on-the-trigger and boots-on-theground involvement in the war, stands to lose the most once the war breaches the year mark and beyond.

Economic sanctions are effective only for a short time. Drawn out and it can affect everyone owing to the global nature of the economy. Sad to say, the quickest end to the suffering may not be the most acceptable. And it may not come first with an end to the shooting but the lifting of sanctions. Ease restrictions and we all breathe easier. As to the war, let it run its due course, this time without interference by anyone.

Call me crazy, call me names. But to me, at this point in the madness, the quickest way out is for the US to simply drop Ukraine. After all, Ukraine was nothing more than just a pawn in the American obsession with its own defense and self-interest. The US has no reason to be in Europe, or Asia, or wherever, other than for this alone. Without the US and its allies, the war can end in days. Who says geopolitics is not ruthless?

“At this point in the madness, the quickest way out is for the US to simply drop Ukraine.”