Will China invade the Philippines?

Last week’s incident in the West Philippine Sea when a China’s coast guard hit a Philippine coast guard ship with a military-grade laser, escalated the conflict between the Philippines and China. This has been growing for the past 10 years, especially after the Philippines won in international court the competing claims in the contested seas. The Philippines has filed hundreds of diplomatic protests on Chinese fishing and coast guard vessels entering and poaching in Philippine seas, which the Chinese government don’t even answer. But this time the Chinese ambassador was called by President BBM, and the governments of Australia, Japan, US, Canada, Germany, Denmark, and the UK expressed concern and condemnation. The Chinese government always downplays these incidents and promises to abide by international/bilateral agreements, but their actions belie their declarations.

China’s aggressive push in the West Philippine Sea is primarily economic. Since the 1960’s Chinese fishing boats have been poaching in the Philippine waters for its rich ocean bounty. After Chinese economy improved and they had bigger ships and equipment, they discovered the rich mineral deposits in the area, which included gas and oil. With a growing economy that needed ever-increasing resources, the West Philippine Seas resources were just too inviting.

The geo-political importance of the area was/is only secondary and came about when the Chinese Communist Party and the military wanted to flex its economic and military superpower status. They wanted bases and territories outside China while cultivating economic and military alliances with developing countries.

The ordinary Chinese citizen who is severely restricted, controlled, and limited as to freedom and liberty is mostly unaware and uncaring for the hegemonic ambitions of the Chinese Communist Party and military politburo. They are cultivated by patriotic propaganda and the historic rights of China and promised of more prosperous living conditions. In reality, only China’s communist political and military elite benefits from an expansionist China. Autocratic and populist governments are geographic expansionists to justify and solidify their hold on power. Almost all wars have been started by dictators or military rulers.

Over and above the loss of productive lives, the greater casualty in war is the economy. The destruction of productive assets, disruptions in trade, and loss of purchasing power is greater and have far-reaching consequences. The size and growth of the world economy and the countries will be set back by five years for every year of war. These are clearly demonstrated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and even by the limited war in Syria. China, the US, and all the contending countries involved in the South China Sea affairs know and realize this, and Chinese Minister Wang and Singapore’s foreign minister have publicly declared that peace is the only alternative.

So, will the Chinese government invade the Philippines? Actually, they already have, by taking over some of the outermost islands and building military structures in them. Their coast guards and fishing boat militia are already controlling the rich fishing grounds. But, as to a more intrusive invasion like taking over Palawan, while not impossible, there is only a 25% probability which could go up to 50%, if China will take over Taiwan. Palawan would be a blocking and refueling base for the south and north entry to the South China Sea in an aerial and naval warfare.

I asked ChatGPT if China will invade the Philippines, this was the answer verbatim. “As an AI language model, I cannot predict the future with certainty, and it would be inappropriate to make assumptions and propagate baseless speculations. It’s important to remember that invading another country is a serious violation of international law and would have significant geopolitical consequences. It is in the best interest of China and the Philippines, as well as the global community, to maintain peaceful and cooperative relationships. It’s essential to promote constructive dialogue, diplomacy, and respect for each country’s sovereignty to resolve any disputes or tensions peacefully”. I rest my case on the China invasion issue and ChatGPT.

“Will the Chinese government invade the Philippines? Actually, they already have.”