China splits ASEAN

At the end of the recently concluded ASEAN Foreign Ministers meeting, it was clear that China has managed to split the ASEAN when it comes to the South China Sea issue. The deep division among its member countries, over China’s continuous belligerent island construction in disputed areas, may spill over into other areas like the proposed ASEAN economic integration.

At the beginning of the meeting, the current chair Malaysian Foreign Minister Anifah Aman tried to set the tone by including the South China dispute in the agenda. He said, in his opening address: “Let this be the day we say we do more.” However, the joint statement at the end of the meeting revealed the lack of consensus. While the Philippines and Vietnam pushed for stronger language, proChina ministers succeeded in watering down the final statement.

The final joint statement said: ”We discussed extensively the matters relating to the South China Sea and remained seriously concerned over recent and ongoing developments in the area. We took note of the serious concerns expressed by some Ministers on the land reclamation in the South China Sea, which have eroded trust and confidence, increased tensions and may undermine peace, security and stability in the South China Sea.”

While the statement was very short, there are still some very disturbing conclusions that can be made if one reads between the lines.

First, the joint statement does not mention China at all as the country that is reclaiming land and causing all the tensions which will undermine peace, security and stability. It would seem that saying anything directly against China is now considered diplomatically sacrilegious. This is like condemning a crime without, at the same time, mentioning the name of the perpetrator.

Second, the statement said that peace, security and stability would be undermined. But all the foreign ministers could say is that they were “seriously concerned.” There was no actual condemnation of all those activities even though they could lead to conflicts or even war in the region.

Third, the declaration further stated that the serious concerns were actually expressed only by “some Ministers.” Obviously, this meant that there were Ministers who were not concerned about China’s illegal activities in the area. This is the clearest indication of a lack of ASEAN unity in this very critical issue.

Finally, I concur with a recent article written by Elliott Brennan who said that even in the “war of words Beijing has come out on top.” According to him, most media and many foreign leaders exclusively use the term “reclamation” rather than “construction” of artificial islands. He continued: “It’s a term [reclamation}, while technically correct, suggests the features are being reclaimed by a rightful owner.

There has been no strong reaction from China on the ASEAN statement which means the Chinese do not consider this to be taken seriously.

The strongest statements condemning Chinese incursions in the South China have come from two observers at the meeting, the US State Secretary and the Japanese Foreign Minister. The Chinese Foreign Minister condemned what he called “collusion” between the Philippines and Japan but did not mention the United States. It is apparent that China is now more concerned about the growing Philippine-Japan strategic alliance than any ASEAN initiative. But it is also clear that China does not feel it is ready to confront the United States until its economic and naval power are at par with the United States.

With a divided ASEAN and certain members clearly now China’s allies in the region, it can be expected that China will now agree to discussing a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea. However, it can be assumed that China will insist that the discussions be limited to only ASEAN members where China can again wield superior influence over a divided region. China will make every effort to exclude other interested countries like Japan and the United States who have the power to stand up to China.

In view of a divided ASEAN, the Philippines must now seek alliances elsewhere in the region. The most obvious ones are Japan and Taiwan which, together with the Philippines form the “first island chain.” The South China Sea is the maritime passage way for $5 trillion in trade annually. Therefore, freedom of navigation in the sea lane is critical to countries like the United States, Singapore, South Korea and Australia. This would be another group of potential allies. Then there are the other ASEAN countries which also have territorial disputes with China like Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia.

Only a few years ago, President Noynoy Aquino seemed like a solitary voice warning about China’s territorial incursions in the South China Sea. Today, more and more countries are finally realizing that the greatest threat to peace, security and stability in the Asia-Pacific region is China and its imperial ambitions.

Cambodia and China

It is now apparent that Cambodia is China’s closest ally in the ASEAN region. Trade and investments between the two countries have dramatically increased. More importantly, Chinese loans and grants to Cambodia increased to $2.7 billion in 2012 making it one of the largest donors.

Cambodia also expects to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of Chinese economic initiatives like the Maritime Silk Road and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

China is also the biggest source of military assistance to Cambodia. This is very critical because Cambodia needs to beef up its military strength due to increasing tensions with its two biggest neighbors – Thailand and Vietnam.

From 2008 to 2011, there were a series of border disputes between Thailand and Cambodia. The ASEAN was unable to come up with an effective response to this border disputes. This seems to have led to the erosion of Cambodia’s confidence in the ASEAN as a regional platform for settling disputes.

Last June 29, 2015 there was a violent clash between Cambodian and Vietnamese nationals along the border of the two countries. Cambodian authorities deported 2,058 Vietnamese illegal migrants and there were reports that thousands of Cambodian migrants in Vietnam returned home fearing violence.

The greater the tension between Cambodia and Vietnam, the closer Cambodia will grow to China. This is one explanation why Cambodia has adopted a conciliatory policy towards China even in the issue of territorial aggression against fellow ASEAN members.

Thailand and China

Last year, the Thai military staged a successful coup d’etat against a democratically elected government. The present Thai junta president is a former Army chief and generals hold major positions in government and state owned corporations like Thai Airways.

Since the coup, relations between Thailand and the United States, its traditional ally, have become very strained. Thai President Chan-Ocha has started working hard to ensure closer relations with China.

Following the ASEAN regional meeting, Thai foreign minister General Tanasak Patimapragorn had a joint news conference with Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi. According to news reports, during that event, the Thai foreign minister said: “If I were a woman, I will fall in love with his excellency.” He was referring to Wang Yi.

Perhaps, this is the start of a new love affair — between China and Thailand.

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