Trump‘s economic team
The transition team of Donald Trump has been very busy helping the US president-elect vet the potential members of his White House staff and Cabinet, starting with Reince Priebus as chief of staff, Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions as attorney general and retired general Michael Flynn as national security adviser.
A lot of Cabinet positions are still waiting to be filled, including that of state secretary (said to be a toss-up between former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney). Businessmen, however, are closely monitoring Donald Trump’s picks for his economic team that include the secretaries for Commerce and Treasury, as well as directors for the Office of Management and Budget, and chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers.
Much earlier, Trump released a video message reiterating his presidency would focus on “putting America first,” with subsequent executive actions that would underscore this core principle. Trump has already announced he would junk the Trans-Pacific Partnership or TPP (which he characterized as a potential disaster) and instead called for “fair bilateral trade deals that bring jobs and industry among American shores.
“Whether it’s producing steel, building cars or curing disease, I want the next generation of production and innovation to happen right here, on our great homeland: America – creating wealth and jobs for American workers,” Trump’s video message went. Official data says the US unemployment rate is at 4.9 percent, although many are convinced that “real unemployment” is much higher, most likely at 20 percent.
Trump’s campaign pledge to bring jobs back to Americans has created anxiety among Filipino workers employed in the business process outsourcing (BPO) industry. However, American Chamber of Commerce in the Philippines (AmCham) executive director Ebb Hinchliffe is convinced the current American BPO companies operating in the Philippines will remain in the country.
While acknowledging the possibility of a slight decrease in trade and investment in Asia under a Trump presidency, Hinchliffe says US businessmen will continue to invest in the Philippines especially since economic growth has been encouraging. According to the National Economic and Development Authority, the country’s economy grew 7.1 percent in the third quarter – making it the highest in Asia with China posting a 6.7 percent economic growth for the same period.
Filipino businessmen are also convinced the BPO sector will remain strong in the country since the cost of outsourcing to the Philippines is much cheaper. Trump’s pronouncements about bringing jobs back to America have to do more with manufacturing and related industries that have been going to Mexico and China over the years, observers noted.
Outgoing US President Barack Obama had also wanted to cut down on US companies’ outsourcing operations, but this did not push through because at the end of the day, the Philippines still offers more cost effective solutions to BPO requirements. Besides, conservative Republicans closely allied with the US Chamber of Commerce will be sure to curb any “overzealous” policy that would be deemed bad for business.
Some analysts also point out the problem of unemployment in the US can also be traced to the growing reliance on “automation,” where “human intervention” for sophisticated tasks is increasingly replaced by smart and artificial intelligence software. In a word, technology – where humans are getting replaced by machines in performing tasks such as driving, flying drones, even rating schoolwork.
In any case, one other source of anxiety is the “antiimmigration” agenda of Donald Trump who has vowed to deport millions of illegal immigrants. We have to remember though that deporting illegals has been a policy even during the last eight years of the Obama administration, an average of 250,000 undocumented Filipinos were quietly deported every year, technically bringing the number of illegal Filipino immigrants who have been sent home to two million.
But apparently, Trump is also looking at reducing legal immigration by curbing guest worker visa programs that he says have been abused, to the point that they have undercut American workers. Trump has promised to “reform legal immigration to serve the best interest of America and its workers” – reflecting the demand of the so-called “restrictionists” (such as attorney general nominee Jeff Sessions) who are against the guest worker visa program.
For instance, the O-1 visa program allows immigration for foreigners with “extraordinary ability” in the fields of arts, sciences or sports and athletics. The EB-5 visa program, on the other hand, allows foreigners to get a green card if they invest a minimum of $500,000 to a project that would result in job generation. The H-1B program has also seen people with specialized occupations (mostly in technology) getting legal immigrant status.
Under the US Federal law, the president has broad authority when it comes to enforcing immigration laws, including prohibiting the entry of “any class of aliens” specially if they are inimical to the interest of the United States. Trump has said he wiould rid America of spies, terrorists, convicted criminals and “international gangs of thugs and drug cartels.”
On that latter point, President Duterte and Donald Trump are on the same wavelength. Hopes are that the new US administration will help “reset” relations between the US and the Philippines since Trump’s protectionist (and seemingly isolationist) policy of “putting America first” falls right along President Duterte’s pursuit of an independent foreign policy.
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