Gong Xi Fa Cai
It’s Chinese New Year and people in our part of Asia will be taking time off to welcome the year of the Fire Rooster. It should be an interesting year and, hopefully, not because of a potential cockfight between two world powers over territory and trade.
Over the last weekend, Donald Trump assumed the US presidency. Comedians and late night show hosts have gone on an overdrive over Trump. This bit of fun “anecdote” went the rounds of social media:
Trump: “In little over a week when I take office, China will fall into a slump. Factories will shut down, shops will close, stock markets will not trade, and government will grind to a halt. The wealthy will flee overseas with their families, citizens desperately trade their currency for food, doors all across the country will be plastered with red notices and the empty streets will reek of lingering gunpowder. The people will turn to day-long drinking and gambling. Children will roam the streets begging for money. So sad.”
China foreign ministry: “That’s Chinese New Year, dumbass.”
Gong Xi Fa Cai, Mr. Trump. That’s the traditional greeting in Mandarin that Chinese folks exchange when they celebrate the new year. Pronounced “gong zee fah tsai,” gong xi means “congratulations” and is also a way to wish one joy. Fa cai is to become rich or make money.
According to GoAsia.about.com, that in essence, is how you wish another joy and prosperity in the new year. It’s Gong Hey Fat Choy in Cantonese which simply means “congratulations and prosperity.”
It would have been great if during his inaugural, Trump wished the Chinese people Gong Xi Fa Cai, if only to show there are no hard feelings. Xi Jinping would have wished the American people Fa cai or a wish for them to prosper. They could have exchanged in spirit the traditional red envelope.
But the inaugural address, while not mentioning China by name, clearly blamed the emerging Asian superpower for a lot of things. Trump declared what amounts to a Fortress America policy… or as he puts it, America First.
How that America First policy is made operational in the next four years is making the whole world nervous. Is America retreating inward, abandoning its leadership role in the world economy and security? Is America upending world economies by drastic changes in trade policies?
The only hopeful note is the possibility that Trump, no matter how short his attention span is, will realize it really is more complicated than his tweets.
China is expressing some concern over Trump’s belligerent language. But it seems they are ready to let him blow off some steam.
The reaction of the ordinary Chinese on the streets is one of amusement. And for one Chinese entrepreneur, Mr. Trump is a good inspiration and excuse to make some money.
Artnet.com reports that the first art sensation of 2017 is a 23-foot-tall Donald Trump-like rooster sculpture. The fiberglass statue, located outside a shopping mall in Taiyuan in Shanxi Province, features a rooster with a Trumpian scowl with bushy eyebrows and a golden helmet of hair.
The statue’s egg-shaped body and golden hair are supposed to symbolize wealth and prosperity for 2017. Artnet.com reports the statue has been a hit in China, with numerous knockoffs for sale on Taobao, the Chinese eBay, with prices ranging from $43 to $1,739 – the latter for a 32-foot-tall inflatable version.
While Trump may seem like a source of entertainment for the ordinary Chinese, his antics confirmed government propaganda about the folly of US democracy. This is the observation of
Chinaskinny.com, a website of western marketing consultants helping companies do business in China.
According to China Skinny, “Trump’s proposed insular, protectionist, and carbon policies look set to erode America’s global standing. In its wake China will hold more sway in everything from trade to environmental leadership, with growing soft power as a result.
“Although the US is integral to the world’s economy, its importance has diminished in China. This is reflected in stable Chinese stock markets post-election while other exchanges spun.
“China’s rising consumer class has seen exports account for a lower share of overall manufacturing. America’s share of Chinese exports of steel for example, has fallen to 2.5 percent from 6.6 percent a decade ago. Trump is not stupid, so let’s hope he and his chums consider that when concocting policies on how to ‘Make America Great Again’.”
Indeed, getting a laugh out of Trump is a good way for China to show it is not about to be provoked. In the past, China has consistently drawn a red line on core interests like Taiwan and the One China policy.
When Trump talked to the Taiwanese president and even publicly toyed with the idea of changing US adherence to the One China Policy, there was just a mild diplomatic reminder. In the past, that would have elicited a sharp and threatening rebuke from Beijing.
It seems the Chinese hierarchy considers Trump a “diplomatic rookie.” The Communist Party’s flagship newspaper is urging Chinese leaders to keep cool and play the adult should Donald Trump continue to test ties between the two nations. The country, the Chinese daily pointed out “doesn’t throw a tantrum to strive for only temporary superiority, or to gain immediate gratification.”
There are indications Trump is also thinking seriously about China than he lets on. He is talking with Henry Kissinger and has asked him to tutor his son-in-law on the nuances of America’s China relations.
“At this moment, I’ve been very impressed by the calm reaction of the Chinese leadership, which suggests a determination to see whether a calm dialogue can be developed,” Dr Kissinger said at an event sponsored by the National Committee on US-China Relations.
Kissinger has met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing to discuss the relationship and then met with Trump. Trump, the deal maker in chief, may even make him see an opportunity in China.
In any case, China is more than raring to step into the vacuum Trump will create by turning America inward. One of Trump’s first acts was to withdraw the US from the previously US-led Trans Pacific Partnership or TPP. China already has an alternative trade group for the region without US participation.
At the World Economic Forum at Davos last week, Xi Jinping calmed a crowd of frightened capitalists who were worried about Trump dismantling the global trade structure plank by plank – a tariff here, a torn-up trade deal there – as the US withdraws from the world.
The Canadian Globe and Mail reports Mr. Xi offered China as the new guardian of borderless trade and custodian-in-chief of international priorities, a responsible and reliable new global leader for the Trump age.
“Pursuing protectionism is like locking oneself in a dark room,” Mr. Xi said. “While wind and rain may be kept outside, that dark room will also block light and air. No one will emerge as a winner in a trade war.”
As if assuming leadership for world trade was not enough, Mr. Xi came to the United Nations after Davos to promise Chinese leadership on climate change, too. “There is only one Earth in the universe and we mankind have only one homeland,” he said.
With Europe unraveling and America retreating unto itself, can China emerge as the new superpower? Its economy, while still in some trouble, can soon emerge as the world’s largest. Its military, while not yet comparable to the US, is nothing to sneeze at.
All that China needs to do is not be provoked by Trump. And China should adopt a posture characterized by what one analyst called “strategic patience.” With thousands of years of history and civilization behind it, China can indeed be patient and watch the rival superpower unravel in the hands of the narcissist businessman elected by its people in anger.
For now, let us hear it from Chinese children celebrating the new year: Gōng xi fā cái, hóng bāo ná lái – Happy New Year, now give me a red envelope. Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is bchanco@gmail.com. Follow him on Twitter @boochanco