Tokyo: Maybe one, not five
The Philippines, which has not won a gold medal that has counted in the official medal tally of any modern Olympic Games, will win not just one, but five golds in Tokyo in 2020. This was the bold, airy prediction made by Philippine Olympic Committee president Peping Cojuangco at the thanksgiving mass and dinner for the country’s Asian Indoor and Martial Arts Games delegation Friday evening. Of course, true to form, the details of how this Philosopher’s stone transmutation will take place, and which sports wizards will produce the medals, remains a mystery. But for the sake of argument, let’s take a realistic, objective look at if it is, indeed, possible.
After the headline-making statement which the sports media would inescapably bite, Cojuangco then qualified his statement by reportedly saying that the government would first have to put up the appropriate facilities first. That’s more like it. To begin with, there are less than three years left before the Games begin on July 24, 2020. Some sports facilities take almost that long just to design; others take almost that long just to build. And of course, it takes a few years for an athlete to build to a career peak in time for a once-in-alifetime performance in the Olympics. Three years? Not gonna happen. The Philippine Sports Commission has not even been given the 100 hectares of land in Clark in Pampanga needed for a new sports facility.
Besides, isn’t the country preparing to host the Southeast Asian Games in less than two years? Wasn’t Cojuangco the one who said that that was imperative and very doable? Being pinned down to stage the SEA Games already puts pressure on so many sectors that building any new facility at this time will be more of a drain and a distraction than a help at this point. As this writer said in a previous column (“Getting organized, Sept. 9), “Two years may seem like an eternity for most people, but it is just a heartbeat when organizing large international events. So much coordination, organization, matching of schedules, acquisition and general preparation must take place beforehand. Everyone involved must be apprised of travel dates, practice schedules, game times, where to stay, eat, get supplies and medication when needed. All pertinent resources and personnel must be allocated in the amount, number and times needed. Transport to and from everywhere must be coordinated or provided. In a way, it is creating something out of nothing, as it were. That is the challenge facing the Philippines in hosting the 2019 Southeast Asian Games.” And that was just the introductory paragraph.
Though the POC head declined to mention the sports so as not to “pressure them” he did say it was possible for swimmers and runners currently in the US to win golds. Let’s get this straight: the athletes are good enough to handle the actual pressure of winning an Olympic gold medal, but too weak to handle the pressure of merely being told that they can win an Olympic gold medal? And the athletes training in the US, a much smaller group who can probably guess which of them he’s referring to, can handle it? That’s confusing. Besides, swimming was blanked out of the last SEA Games, wasn’t it?
Tokyo’s organizing committee is adding new sport in surfing, skateboarding, karate, rock climbing, and restoring baseball and softball. This will create 18 new events, and pull in 474 additional athletes, while hopefully appealing to a younger audience. Among those sports, only karate has weight classes, providing more of an even playing field. In the other new additions, where do we stand a chance? Pro surfers are predominantly American, as are many of the best skateboarders and rock climbers. The Americans and Japanese also have great baseball programs. Less than a decade ago, softball was denied funding in the Philippines for not qualifying for two successive SEA Games, wasn’t it? And it costs more to send big teams to international qualifiers. Those aforementioned facts do not even include comparative statistics, which would surely show where our athletes are on the world stage, and the wide gulf between them and the world’s best. Now, that is pressure.
Since 1924, when the Philippines sent a lone athlete to its maiden appearance at the Games, the most athletes the country has sent to the Olympics is 53 participating in Munich in 1972 (including our last Olympic basketball team), and 31 to Seoul in 1988. In the last four Olympic Games, the country has qualified 16, 15, 11 and 13 athletes, respectively. In 2016, China sent its biggest Olympic delegation to Rio de Janeiro. And our 13 athletes were spread over eight different sports, including golf (new in 2016), table tennis, taekwondo, athletics, swimming and weightlifting among them. Traditionally, you have a better chance at winning the gold if you have more entries in a particular sport, or if your athletes are in more than one event in each of their sports, as in swimming and athletics.
Before Hidilyn Diaz won a silver in the 53-kilogram weightlifting class last year, Willy Wang won a gold in wushu, a special event in Beijing in 2008. Looking at those results, and not even considering training, illness, injury, scheduling and so on, one gold seems possible. Five? Improbable.
With all due respect to Jose Rizal, we’re looking back where we’ve been to see where we can go in 2020. But also, if you look too far down the road, you’ll end up tripping on the pebble right in front of you.