End of the Deng era
The 19th Chinese Communist Party Congress, Oct. 18-24 was more of a coronation than a communist congress which normally stresses collective leadership. Xi Jinping has now been crowned as ruler for life of China without any apparent successor. He has transcended Mao Zedong who, at least, espoused a revolutionary ideology as the basic framework of his government. Today what exists in China can best be described as” Xi Jinpingism.” The closest resemblances in China’s history are the ancient Emperors who once dominated China’s history.
Historians will most likely also point to this Party Congress at the end of the “Deng Era.” During the last three decades, Deng Xiaoping’s thoughts have been the guide for China’s foreign and domestic policies.
Much of the world may have forgotten that it was Deng who took over from the Maoist rule and launched the economic reforms that has made China the world’s second largest economy today. In the 1990s China was ending the chaotic era of Maoist activism; and, was opening to the world. Deng had these words of caution to China’s rulers: “Observe calmly, secure our position, cope with affairs calmly, hide our capacities, bide our time, be good at maintaining a low profile; and never claim leadership.”
China had long been exploited by imperialist powers and Deng had vowed that China would never be an imperialist power. Under Mao, China was considered as one of the leading voices that spoke for the “Third World.”
Deng’s model
According to geopolitical experts, the Deng model rested on three pillars: “The first was economic pragmatism, allowing for capitalist style incentives domestically and channels for international trade...The Communist Party of China’s legitimacy thus famously became linked to the country’s economic success rather than to ideological zeal and class warfare.
The second pillar was a foreign policy of cooperation. The lack of emphasis on political ideology opened space for international maneuver with economic cooperation as the basis for new relationships. China would maintain a low profile and avoid taking the lead. China would remain unobtrusive to befriend and do business with almost any country – as long as it recognized one China.
The third pillar was the primacy of the Communist Party System. Reform of the political system along the lines of Western countries could be envisioned but in practice would be deferred. That the reform process in no way would be allowed to undermine Party supremacy was sealed after mass protests at Tiananmen which the military crushed after a dangerous intra-Party struggle. The People’s Liberation Army and the People’s Armed Policy would serve as Deng’s “Great Wall of Steel” protecting the Party from insurrection.”
Deng Xiaoping’s strategy of preserving his legacy was to establish a succession. He was instrumental in setting up his immediate successor Jiang Zemin and his successor Hu Jintao.
The new Chinese empire
In a recent issue of the Economist, Xi Jinping is portrayed as a strong man whose primary mission is to rebuild the Communist Party of China. He is quoted as saying: “If morale is low, organization is loose, discipline and ethics unchecked... in the end we will not only fail but...the tragedy of the emperor Chu [who was murdered in 202 BC] might occur again.”
I find it intriguing that while Xi is presumably talking about the Communist Party, he is comparing himself to an ancient Emperor. Was this a Freudian slip of the tongue or a deliberate signal?
Since the days of Deng, the Communist Party of China names a potential successor during the mid-term of its president. In the recent Congress, no successor was named and it is clear that Xi is planning to rule for more than the usual 10-year term. This comes at a critical time for China. According to the think tank Stratfor:
“Other countries already have started pushing back against even China’s economic policies. The outside world, for example, no longer sees China’s Belt and Road initiative as a benign, albeit ambitious infrastructure development endeavour but see it as a vehicle to extend China’s reach through economic corridors that could, in a pinch, double as military routes.
And for recipients of China’s development investments, the payments are starting to bear an unsettling resemblance to the infrastructure that European powers issued to help ‘modernize’ countries in Asia and Africa, paving the way for imperial subjugation. “As nationalism gain traction around the world, the opposition to China’s activities abroad could deepen.”
Domestically, Deng’s philosophy of economic growth as the basis for the legitimacy of the Communist Party could also be under question. Growth is slowing and will continue to slow as China’s economy matures. Income inequality is also rising. During the next decade a number of problems will become more acute. Water shortage, air pollution and middle class concerns about housing, education and health care will come to fore as a new generation that has gotten used to fast economic growth begin to dominate China’s demographics.
In 1980, Deng Xiaoping gave a speech to the Politburo that warned against concentrating too much authority in one person saying “...it is liable to give rise to arbitrary rule.” Deng argued that it was best to have a predictable orderly succession.
Xi Jinping has now imposed one-man rule in China with no predictable succession. In the past, this has been a recipe for instability for China which often led to violent struggles for succession. History will judge whether Deng Xiaoping was right or whether Xi Jinping has reestablished imperial rule in China.
Creative writing classes for kids/teens and adults
Young Writers’ Hangout for Kids & Teens on November 4 and November 18 (1:30-3pm/independent sessions). Turning Ideas Into Books for Adults with Karina Bolasco on November 11, 2017 (1:30pm4:30pm). All sessions are at Fully Booked Bonifacio High Street. For registration and fee details text 0917-6240196 or email writethingsph@gmail.com.