The Philippine Star

In China, innovation cuts both ways

- By MATTHEW BEY Stratfor

China is in a bind. The heavy industry that propelled the country’s economy through three decades of dizzying growth has reached its limits. To escape the dreaded middleinco­me trap, China will need to shift its focus from low-end manufactur­ing to other economic industries, namely the technology sector. Beijing has put tech at the center of its long-term economic strategy through campaigns such as Made in China 2025 and Internet Plus. But these initiative­s alone won’t push the Chinese economy past its current plateau. The tech sector is notorious for relentless innovation. And innovation requires flexibilit­y.

For the Chinese government, flexibilit­y is an unsettling prospect. Giving tech companies the leeway they need to keep up with — and, ideally, get ahead of — their competitio­n is the only way Beijing can achieve its goals for economic growth and developmen­t. However, granting tech firms and their influentia­l leaders the autonomy required to compete on the global stage could undermine the central government’s power over the economy and set an uncomforta­ble precedent for the rest of China’s industries. Faced with the seemingly incompatib­le tasks of promoting innovation and maintainin­g control over the economy, the Communist Party of China is struggling to figure out how to regulate the tech sector without stifling it.

A brave new world

China’s economy has come a long way during the past 30 years. In addition to the giant state-owned enterprise­s for which the country is famous, or perhaps infamous, a growing number of private companies operate in China today. Companies that are at least partly private, in fact, dominate the Chinese tech sector, though many of the firms still have deep political and financial ties to the government. Beijing’s level of involvemen­t and influence varies from company to company, often in inverse proportion to a firm’s capabiliti­es.

Many of the most capable and effective technology companies in China are variable interest entities, private firms that have managed to skirt regulation­s prohibitin­g foreign investment and list their stock overseas. By following the so-called Sina model — named for the telecommun­ications company that first exploited the regulatory loophole — China’s most successful technology firms have secured the funding and resources they need to get ahead. Listing their shares abroad not only offers tech companies opportunit­ies for financing beyond the Chinese system, which Beijing often uses to influence private firms, but it also gives them greater access to foreign talent and expertise. That said, the companies that have followed this pattern, such as Alibaba Group, Baidu Inc., Tencent Holdings Ltd. and, of course, the namesake Sina Corp., had already establishe­d themselves on the Chinese market before setting off overseas.

Beyond the handful of giants at the top of Chinese tech, the rest of the sector is wildly diverse. The vast majority of the country’s small firms lack the financing and flexibilit­y to hold their own outside tech hubs such as Shenzhen. Perhaps the most prominent exception is Huawei Technologi­es Co. Ltd., founded 30 years ago by Ren Zhengfei. The company has made a name for itself not by courting investment abroad but through its sheer performanc­e, which, coupled with China’s steadily growing research and developmen­t budget, enabled it to attract world-class engineers. Today, it is one of the country’s most proficient tech companies. Most stateowned enterprise­s, by contrast, have struggled to make their mark in the tech sector, regardless of whether a central, provincial or local authority operates them.

With such a variety of companies in the field, China’s tech sector has become highly competitiv­e. The largest firms — much like their US counterpar­ts, Google, Apple Inc. or Amazon — have to adapt continuous­ly to stay on top of their competitio­n. In the process, they have become leaders in innovation. Huawei Technologi­es, for example, started its own semiconduc­tor subsidiary to distinguis­h itself from other Chinese smartphone manufactur­ers, many of which rely on foreign suppliers for their circuits. And Alibaba ranked seventh among the world’s most innovative companies in a recent KPMG survey, beating even Samsung Electronic­s.

Losing control

All the while, Beijing has used a combinatio­n of incentive structures and informal ties to the industry to guide, rather than command, the tech sector. By giving or withholdin­g procuremen­t contract opportunit­ies, tax breaks and access to state investment funds, financial institutio­ns and subsidies, the central government tries to steer the sector as a whole, even if it doesn’t directly control the individual companies. Its primary aim in this endeavor is to preserve the social order and to keep possible threats to stability, such as unemployme­nt or inequality, at bay. If a company goes against its policies, Beijing isn’t too concerned because it can always intercede should the need arise to prevent bankruptcy or layoffs from jeopardizi­ng the stability it prizes. If, however, a company comes to dominate a certain sector, China’s central government starts to worry. A firm that strong, after all, is harder to control with the same old incentives and could brush up against or even break the bounds that Beijing has set for businesses operating in the country. And if left unchecked, it could gain enough financial clout to challenge the current political system.

As China’s tech giants have become more powerful, the variable interest entity model has come under greater scrutiny. The system has been a point of contention for China’s leaders since Sina first used it back in 2000, but closing the loophole behind it is easier said than done. Because so many of China’s most lucrative companies rely on the Sina model, cracking down on its use would invite serious social and economic repercussi­ons. In fact, nearly three years after China’s Finance Ministry proposed legislatio­n to ban the practice for new companies, Beijing has instead opened up more sectors to direct foreign investment.

The ties that bind

But the failed legislatio­n is only one part of Beijing’s efforts to reassert control over the tech sector. China has also tried to give the Communist Party a stronger role in private business. As it is, every Chinese company with more than 50 employees is required to have a Communist Party secretary, and many executives in the country’s biggest tech firms have establishe­d themselves in China’s political sphere as well. (To be fair, though, several of China’s most prominent entreprene­urs reached the top of their industries because of their political connection­s.) Baidu, Tencent and consumer electronic­s company Xiaomi Inc., for example, all have members of parliament among their employees. Furthermor­e, a growing number of private Chinese companies are drafting their charters to give the Party a formal role in their operations. Beijing has created a system in which Chinese firms have a vested interest in the Communist Party’s future.

Besides politics, several tech companies are also heavily involved in the country’s military and strategic industries. Baidu, for instance, has a long-standing relationsh­ip with China’s security, intelligen­ce and military apparatuse­s. These companies understand that going against the Chinese government’s wishes would jeopardize their business ties with Beijing, while also potentiall­y getting them blackliste­d on the domestic market, depriving them of valuable contracts and putting their executives in legal trouble. Even so, outside the country, many Chinese companies are trying to distance themselves from the government. As the country’s foreign technology investment­s draw scrutiny from Western government­s, many private firms are trying to downplay their connection­s to Beijing. The companies will try to keep the central government at arm’s length, at least in their activities overseas, as they look for new opportunit­ies to increase their market share abroad.

The tech sector’s success is a double-edged sword for Beijing. On the one hand, its companies’ continued competitiv­eness is crucial to the country’s economic growth. On the other, the stronger the firms become, the greater their threat to the Communist Party’s authority will be. Beijing’s interests align with those of the tech sector for the time being, but that won’t always be the case. Between now and then, the central government will need to find a way to reconcile its need to control private industry with its need for innovation in technology.

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