China’s quality growth in numbers
The Government Work Report (or “Report”) delivered by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang on March 5 is a comprehensive analysis of China’s economy in the new era, which is transitioning from high-speed to high-quality growth. One of the most important features of the Report is the hard numbers featured in the summary of achievements and the formulation of new missions. The numbers articulate the inevitability and necessity of the transformation of the Chinese economy from high speed to high quality as well as illustrating the basic characteristics of high growth and outlining the necessary steps to achieve this transformation.
Part One of the Report summarizes the remarkable achievements of China’s economic and social development over the last five years. Some of the most important numbers in this section are:
China’s gross domestic product (GDP) has risen to 82.7 trillion yuan, the equivalent of $12.5 trillion. Last year, China’s share of the global economy grew to roughly 15 percent, and its contribution to global growth reached 30 percent.
In 1978, China’s GDP measured merely 364.5 billion yuan. During that era, Chinese people relied on ration coupons to meet their basic needs for food and clothing. Most were still struggling with poverty. So in 1981, the Sixth Plenary Session of the 11th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China concluded that the main contradiction of China’s economic and social development was that between the growing material and cultural needs of the people and the backwardness of production forces. After nearly 40 years of reform and opening up, the people’s needs for food and clothing have been met. It is now possible for Chinese people to live decent lives, and soon the construction of a moderately prosperous society in all aspects will be completed. The Chinese economy is now the second largest in the world. Socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a new era, and now the principal contradiction in China is between the people’s growing needs for better living standards and unbalanced and inadequate development. Simultaneously, the Chinese economy has also entered a new era. After 40 years of development, the crux of China’s economic work has shifted from meeting the people’s basic needs for survival to meeting increasing demand for higher-quality products and services. The transition from high speed to high quality is essentially the DNA of China’s economic development, which is required for continued sustainable growth of the Chinese economy at a higher level. The government’s accomplishments over the last five years have laid a solid foundation and created the necessary conditions for this important transition.
Part Two of the Report outlines the overall requirements and policy direction for economic and social development in 2018. Of all the numbers in this section, the most telling is GDP growth of around 6.5 percent and its accompanying analysis.
The Chinese economy grew by 6.9 percent last year. Common wisdom would have it ascend to new heights in 2018 and reach seven percent at bare minimum. But the Report didn’t predict such robust growth. Instead, it lowered expectations to 6.5 percent. In the Report from last year, the growth target was also 6.5 percent, followed by the statement: “However in practice, we will strive for better.” The growth target in the Report this year is not followed by the same statement, however, which serves as a strong signal that growth speed is no longer the focus of the Chinese economy. Focus will be placed on the quality of growth. The Chinese economy is positioned to grow by 6.5 percent in 2018. That should not be a difficult goal to achieve. The moderate reduction of the growth target will create more space and provide a better environment for the transition from high speed to high quality.
An essential driver of high-quality growth is putting the people first, so that people can receive tangible benefits. For upcoming and ongoing economic work in 2018, the Report provides numbers for objectives and tasks intended to improve people’s living standards, such as “over 11 million new urban jobs” and “surveyed urban unemployment rate under 5.5 percent.” Employment is the bedrock of the livelihood of the people. Through employment, the people earn the income to improve their living standards. Employment pressure is mounting in China this year as 8.2 million college graduates seek work. An important sign of high-quality growth is high employment. High employment this year will not be achieved with high speed as usual, but with innovation in growth models and growth within an optimized structure. High employment will be linked to highquality growth. China used to use “registered unemployment rate,” which only covered the urban population, as the official unemployment statistical indicator. For various reasons, many people held different views of the statistics. New methodology has made current employment and unemployment statistics more scientific.
The Report features more numbers on improving people’s livelihood. For example, as the Report states, “This year, we will further reduce the poor rural population by over 10 million, including 2.8 million people who are to be relocated from inhospitable areas” and “This year, another 13 million people will be registered as permanent urban residents, and we will accelerate work on granting permanent urban residency to people from rural areas residing in cities.” The Report also proposes higher pensions for retirees, higher basic pensions for urban and rural residents and a higher threshold for individual income tax. The numbers on the improvement of people’s livelihood, an important component of high-quality growth, provide the transparency necessary for NPC deputies and citizens in general to align with the target and evaluate the work of the government.
Part Three of the Report proposes the goal of high-quality growth as well as the fundamental means to achieve the growth.
Above all, high-quality growth is growth driven by innovation. The Report presents important ideas and figures to help make China a country of innovators. “We must be on board with the latest global revolution in science and technology and industrial transformations,” stresses the Report. “We will continue making the Chinese economy more innovative and competitive.” Highquality growth should also be environmentally sustainable. The Report proposes new measures to prevent and control air pollution to make the skies blue again, including target reductions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions as well as a drop in PM2.5 density. To achieve high-quality growth, the problem of unbalanced and inadequate development must be solved. The Report proposes targets for priority tasks such as cutting overcapacity and calls for strengthening weak areas. None of the numbers in the Report are static. All are interconnected as a whole, which cuts to the heart of this transition and provides illuminating analysis of the Chinese economy’s shift from high speed to high quality in the new era. Each and every number testifies to the pursuits and vision of hundreds of millions of people seeking better lives and the shared will of the people’s government and the people.