‘The power of the past’; The reserve tire

In an after-dinner conversation I asked a friend in banking what he thought was behind the stock markets’ fall. His answer was quick – Duterte. He did not say why he thought so but it was a rumor making the rounds of business circles, he said.

That is one story. There is another.

“Despite a weak global economy, the Philippines will remain a fast growing economy and continue to outpace its regional neighbors,” the World Bank said in its Philippine Economic Update report.

However there is still the lingering uncertainty for political reasons. It is a rope hanging beside the praise as a warning.

Duterte won the presidency on a populist platform for “real change” and inclusive growth that everyone would benefit from economic growth.

“Now critics are saying they are getting tired of the administration touting the war on drugs as an achievement and calling Duterte “a one trick pony.” There and that is just for starters.

The Philippines has said it wants to end the country’s dependency on the United States. The country is moving to balance its interests. (06.10.2016)

In an article in the South China Morning Post, Steven Keithley wrote that ‘the drug wars are merely a smokescreen masking Duterte’s inability to make hard decisions on economic plans and territorial disputes in the South China Sea.” I’d look at who owns China Morning Post for this interpretation of events.

The answer comes from the US Library of Congress country profile of the Philippines. In sum the past never left us after we were colonized by the United States.

“The economy of the Philippines is an anomaly in the Asia-Pacific region in that it has lagged behind other economies, such as those of Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. From a position as one of the wealthiest countries in Asia after World War II, the Philippines is now one of the poorest. Since the 1970s, which were a relatively prosperous decade, the Philippines has failed to achieve a sustained period of rapid economic growth and has suffered from recurring economic crises. This persistent underperformance has occurred in spite of the Philippines’ rich natural and human resources.

The reasons are rooted partly in history, partly in policy. As a legacy of the US colonial period, oligopolies have dominated the economy, particularly in agriculture, where farmland continues to be concentrated in large estates.

The National Capital Region around Manila, which produces about 36 percent of GDP with only 12 percent of the population, is much more prosperous than rural areas, where much of the population depends on subsistence living. The traditional lack of job opportunities has led many Filipinos to seek employment outside the country, notably in the Persian Gulf states. Remittances to family members back home – equivalent to 10 percent of GDP – have partially offset a relatively low national rate of savings of about 15 to 18 percent, about average for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, but below average for the region. Current account and budget deficits exacerbate the impact of the low savings rate on growth.

Poverty is a serious problem in the Philippines. In 2003 per capita gross national income was $1,080, below the $1,390 average for lower-middle-income countries. Reflecting regional disparities, in 2003 about 11 percent of Filipinos lived on less than $1 per day and 40 percent on less than $2 per day, according to the World Bank. The overall poverty rate declined from 33 percent (25.4 million people) in 2000 to 30.4 percent (23.5 million people) in 2003. Poverty is more concentrated in rural than in urban areas.

The future does not look bright with politicians who are in place to derail Duterte’s independent posture. I might have put it under “tidbits” but Mar Roxas is the reserved tire in case everything fails in the drive against Duterte. Why else do you think Korina Sanhez had a Belo makeover?

I don’t know if it was friends who persuaded Mar Roxas to take on the image of a tricycle driver. But people laughed and said he forgot to remove his Gucci shoes. Or pictures of him carrying a sack of rice on his shoulder when we know that is not how he earned his living. It mocked the poor and they are now aware of it.

More truthful but just as ridiculous for this man of the poor was married in grand ceremonies in Sto Domingo Church. Manila’s 400 were there. No room for the poor that he tried to emulate.

Early in the moves to switch the Liberal candidate for the presidency from Roxas to Aquino, I happened to sit next to a US embassy official and I asked if this means giving up all that was done for Mar Roxas to give way to Noynoy Aquino as the Liberal candidate for president. A Wharton graduate and a scion of one of the richest families of the Philippines. He fits the bill for a reserve tire if everything else fails in removing Duterte. This early, Liberal Supremo Frank Drilon is already trying to get him as a Liberal candidate for the Senate. Susmariosep.

Here is the list of what Roxas spent during the election campaign of 2017. It is one of the reasons why the rich will continue to dominate our politics and government at the same time that the oligopoly mocks the poor.

Many of his donors are members of his family on both the Roxas and Araneta side.

Based on the SOCE, his biggest contributor is his mother, Judy Araneta Roxas, who put in a total of P110 million (P90 million given in February and another P20 million in May).

The next one is Oriental Mindoro Governor Alfonso V. Umali Jr. who put in exactly P72,394,462.35 in “TV ads.”

He is followed by Roxas’ uncle, Araneta Group CEO Jorge L. Araneta, who contributed P70 million.

Maria Lourdes “Baby” Araneta-Fores reported P60 million in campaign contributions.

Mining magnate Francis Enrico M. Gutierrez donated P40 million.

Those who contributed P10 million include Mar’s sister Maria Lourdes R. Ojeda, his aunt Ruby A. Roxas, real estate tycoon Melisa Dy Chua, and Araneta Group vice president Jorge A. Fores.

These donors accounted for the majority of the donations to the presidential campaign of Roxas.

Other renowned contributors include business process industry executives Marife Zamora (P1 million) and Maria Victoria Mueco (P1 million), former chair of the Civil Service Commission Karina Constantino-David (P2 million), and former Department of Trade and Industry Secretary Gregory L. Domingo (P5 million).