Rice imports in 2019 to breach 1.8 million MT

The Philippines will continue its rice importing spree next year since local production will still not cover national demand for the main staple, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) said.

According to the latest report of the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), the Philippines will likely import 1.8 million metric tons of rice in 2019, just slightly lower than this year’s estimated 1.9 million MT.

The USDA hiked next year’s rice imports from the earlier projection of 1.2 million MT following reduced crop estimates.

“Trade is largely unchanged as higher imports for the Philippines are mostly offset by lower imports for China,” USDA said.

The agency earlier said high rice prices due to tight supply, rising fuel prices and market distribution inefficiencies will force the Philippine government to import more rice to stabilize prices and contain inflation.

The country’s additional imports also aim to strengthen buffer stocks ahead of the midterm elections scheduled in May 2019.

Rice consumption has also been raised to 13.5 million MT from 13.25 million MT as rising food prices are forcing less affluent Filipinos to consume more rice and less meat and vegetables.

USDA’s forecast is still subject to change, especially as the government has yet to finalize matters of the quantitative restrictions on imported rice.

Production of milled rice next year is seen decreasing by one percent to 12.15 million MT from the expected 12.23 million MT this year.

USDA said there might be slight reduction in area planted, as rice areas in 2019 will be at 4.81 million hectares, one percent lower than the 4.84 million hectares this year.

In terms of ending stocks, USDA said the Philippines will likely end 2018 with a carryover volume of 2.74 million MT for 2019.