Justin Trudeau, humbled, gets a second chance
He survived scandal and self-inflicted wounds, but will have to lead Canada as part of a coalition with progressive parties.
Justin Trudeau’s victory in Canada’s national elections on Monday followed what he called one of the “nastiest” campaigns in Canadian history. That may be true, to the degree that much of the campaign was about him and some bad decisions he made, and it featured a lot of name-calling. At one point supporters of his Conservative challenger even chanted “Lock him up, lock him up.”
But Canadian “nasty” should be seen in the context of a country whose people are deemed among the most polite in the world, with election campaigns capped by law at 50 days. This is a far, far cry from the marathon, multiyear, mud-clogged political wars that perennially contort the superpower to the south.
Note, for example, that the far-right candidate Maxime Bernier, whose People’s Party sought to emulate Europe’s populists with an illiberal, anti-immigrant, climateskeptical and socially regressive platform, failed miserably, losing his own seat in Parliament and falling short of 2 percent of the vote nationwide. And that when the Conservative leader Andrew Scheer heard his followers chant “Lock him up” of Mr. Trudeau at an Ontario rally, he was actually embarrassed and tried to steer the crowd to “Vote him out, vote him out.” And that the New Democratic Party, which sits to the left of Mr. Trudeau’s Liberals and won nearly 16 percent of the vote, was led by a turban-wearing Sikh, Jagmeet Singh.
Yet the election was unlike the one four years ago, when Mr. Trudeau, the young and charismatic bearer of an illustrious political name, was swept into office declaring “Canada is back!” forming a gender-balanced cabinet, welcoming refugees, pledging to combat climate change, making amends to Canada’s Indigenous peoples, legalizing marijuana and offering a national carbon tax plan.
No honeymoon lasts long in politics, and he foundered when his former attorney general and justice minister, the Indigenous leader Jody Wilson-Raybould, accused him and members of his staff of pressuring her over a corruption case against a major engineering company. The scandal dominated the news for months and led to several high-level resignations. Then, when the campaign got underway in September, old photographs and a video surfaced of Mr. Trudeau in brownface and blackface.
In the end, a humbled Mr. Trudeau, now 47, survived, losing his parliamentary majority and the popular vote but retaining enough seats to form a government with help from two left-leaning parties. It was not a full vindication – a sizable factor in the outcome was the bland and negative campaign run by Mr. Scheer and his Conservatives.
Beyond personalities, the election reflected the broad erosion of the global political landscape since 2015. Canada’s openness to refugees has been tested by reports of immigrants entering illegally; a new president in the United States wasted no time to demonstrate his disdain for Mr. Trudeau and Canada; low oil prices hurt Canada’s oil-producing provinces and turned them against the Liberal government. As in so many other democracies, the voting demonstrated broadening rifts – in Canada between east and west, city and countryside, French- and English-speakers.
What the voting did not demonstrate was any immediate threat to Canadian unity from the grievances of the Prairie Provinces or nationalism in Quebec, both of which are permanent features of the Canadian political landscape that rise and fall over the years. Nor did it demonstrate a turn away from the admirably liberal, inclusive and humane policies that Mr. Trudeau brought to office in 2015. Let us hope that Mr. Trudeau returns to office chastened and wiser.