Global healthcare spending seen to fall

Despite massive resources being poured by governments worldwide into the coronavirus disease 2019 or COVID-19 response, healthcare expenditures are expected to fall as spending for non-urgent care for other conditions are postponed and patients become reluctant to go to hospitals for fear of becoming infected, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).

In a new report titled “COVID-19: The impact on healthcare expenditure,” EIU said healthcare spending across the world’s 60 biggest economies, which include the Philippines, will fall by 1.1 percent in US dollar terms in 2020, but may recover by 5.5 percent in 2021.

“The battle against the novel coronavirus has led to a drop in spending on other conditions, with non-urgent care cancelled and patients avoiding hospitals and clinics. However, we expect spending on non-coronavirus care to recover later in the year,” EIU said.

“The recovery will continue in 2021, when healthcare spending will rise by 5.5 percent in dollar terms. Effective vaccines and treatments for coronavirus are likely to become available during the year, necessitating additional expenditure.”

EIU noted that the pandemic’s effect to global health expenditure this year bucked the trend in most recessions in which growth was still seen in the sector despite diminished economic growth.

“In most recessions, healthcare is one of the most resilient sectors,” EIU said. “In 2009, amid the global financial crisis, healthcare spending in the world’s 60 biggest economies rose by 2.8 percent in US-dollar terms.”

EIU noted that many hospitals, emergency departments and doctors’ clinics across the surveyed countries reported receiving fewer patients than normal. Visits to dentists are near impossible in countries experiencing lockdowns.

As the contagion becomes more controlled this year, however, and economic recovery is ushered in next year, EIU said spending for healthcare will surge as patients emerge from quarantine and delayed treatments push though.

“Combined with an economic recovery and, importantly, the base effect from this year’s slump, this will lead to a sharp recovery in healthcare spending in most countries,” EIU said.