Phl remains among world’s top geothermal producers

The Philippines is expected to remain among the world’s largest markets for total installed geothermal power capacity over the next decade, but its position of being the third biggest could slip with limited capacity seen coming online.

In a report, Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research has identified the Philippines and the US as geothermal power sector outperformers, or those geothermal power markets that have a significant capacity base installed, and/ or will register substantial growth in capacity over a 10-year forecast period.

Fitch Solutions is forecasting the US and the Philippines to be the third and fourth largest markets, respectively, in terms of installed geothermal capacity globally by 2031.

The Philippines’ market is currently estimated to have the world’s third largest installed geothermal capacity at 1,928 megawatts (MW).

Fitch Solutions said that over its 10-year forecast period, geothermal power will be the dominant source of non-hydropower renewable electricity output in the Philippines, accounting for an annual average share of 64 percent of total renewable power generation.

“However, we remain bearish on the future growth prospects of geothermal power capacity in the Philippines, given that most of the market’s proven reserves have been commercialized while the unproven potential reserves of just under 2.4 GW are in more inaccessible areas,” it said.

Over the next decade, Fitch Solutions’ forecast is that only 217 MW of geothermal capacity will come online in the Philippine market, bringing installed capacity to 2,145 MW by 2031.

By 2025, it sees Turkey overtaking the Philippines for total installed geothermal capacity, making the country the world’s fourth largest geothermal market.