Our leaderless free world

The last time the world had a global recession (and spiking food prices), the result was the Arab Spring, civil wars in Syria and Libya, the rise of the Islamic State, migrant waves into Europe and populist revolts that included Brexit and the election of Donald Trump. Imagine all this but on a vastly greater scale, a year or two from today.

The fourth crisis is one of liberal democracy. Democracy is not its own justification. It justifies itself by what it delivers: security, stability, predictability, prosperity – and then consent, choice and freedom.

People who have spent their entire lives in stable democracies often assume that freedom is everyone’s supreme value. The depressing lesson of the past 20 years is that it isn’t. Illiberal democracy, on the Hungarian model, can be a successful form of government. Ditto for effective autocracies, like in Singapore and the United Arab Emirates. Democracies that fail at delivery – by letting prices or crime or control of borders or common understandings of right and wrong get out of hand – put the best of what they stand for at risk.

The free world will always retain formidable advantages over its antidemocratic adversaries because we are better able to acknowledge our mistakes and correct them. But the cascading crises we face would challenge even the most inspired leaders. Except for Volodymyr Zelensky, there are none.

The best thing Biden could do for the country is announce he won’t run for reelection – now, not after the midterms. Let his party sort out its own future. Appoint a confidence-inspiring Treasury secretary (if not Larry Summers, then Jamie Dimon). Ensure that Ukraine wins swiftly. Put fear and hesitation in the minds of dictators in Moscow, Tehran and Beijing.

It might be enough to rescue a floundering presidency in a sinking world.