FIRST PERSON
“Fruitful” would be an understatement to describe the outcome of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s working visit to Japan last week.
The President came back with official development assistance packages and private investment commitments amounting to P250 billion. Documents were signed to fund the NorthSouth Commuter Railway, a vital rail link that will support the development of Central Luzon. Japan provides a Post-disaster Standby Loan amounting to P12.5 billion. Funding is also extended for the rehabilitation of the MRT-3.
The soft loans extended by Japan are the best we could access. They carry an interest rate of only 0.1 percent over a 40-year term, with a 10-year grace period. This is far superior to the infrastructure loans China offers.
The agreements signed in Tokyo last week reinforce Japan’s place as the Philippines’ leading source of development assistance.
On top of the economic support, Japan has offered to support our maritime security through assistance to the Philippine Coast Guard. Tokyo will help build the PCG’s Subic Bay support base.
Although keen to downplay the security side of our partnership, Tokyo has reaffirmed its support for the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) and the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP). The principles contained here are vital planks of our security and defense policies. They insist on maintaining freedom of navigation in the contested seas.
Japan’s constitution restricts the role the country may play in the security affairs of our region. Her land and naval forces are restricted to playing selfdefense roles. Because of this, it does not seem likely Japan will enter into any overt military alliances. Add to this the pacifist disposition of Japanese public opinion that no government in Tokyo would want to provoke.
But Japan would be negligent if it did not step up to its responsibilities in ensuring peace and stability in the region. Her own security is threatened by North Korea stepping up its nuclear arsenal, by China’s competing claims over islands now under Tokyo’s jurisdiction and by Beijing’s belligerent designs on Taiwan.
Japan’s economy will be greatly harmed by anything that causes constriction of the international sea lanes, especially in the tense South China Sea. The aging industrial power has a strategic interest in keeping the sea lanes open and unthreatened.
Over the past few years, Tokyo has been testing the boundaries of its pacifist orthodoxy. Japan has contributed to international peace-keeping forces abroad. The pacifist orthodoxy, however, may only be transformed at a glacial pace. This might not, however, be what the rapidly changing regional situation demands.
While President Marcos was in Tokyo, a Philippine Coast Guard vessel was challenged by its Chinese counterpart as it moved to supply our Marine unit stationed at Ayungin Shoal. In an escalation of its tactics, the Chinese Coast Guard vessel aimed a “military grade” laser beam at the Filipino ship.
Every week, this year, Manila filed diplomatic protests over the increasingly aggressive tactics used by the Chinese flotilla stationed in the South China Sea. This latest incident raises the bar. In response, President Marcos summoned the Chinese ambassador to the Palace to express his “serious concern” over the incident.
The US was quick to support Manila’s protest over this incident. Some voices in Manila are now claiming the Mutual Defense Treaty may be invoked because firing a laser beam constitutes a hostile act. It is not likely, fortunately, that Marcos would share this extreme position.
Elsewhere, too, the line of confrontation is heating up. The US has downed a total of four “objects” that crossed into American and Canadian airspace. The first “object” shot down by US fighter planes was clearly a high-altitude balloon that has meteorological as well as surveillance uses. Beijing protested the US action.
Now Beijing is claiming, without evidence, that the Americans are flying balloons over Chinese airspace. The propaganda line appears to be mainly intended to help Beijing save face after several “objects” were downed over North American airspace.
Earlier this month, Pyongyang paraded even larger intercontinental ballistic missiles, claiming these things could reach targets in the US heartland. Independent experts agree that the devices Kim Jong Un put on display do appear to have the capability to do that. But it is a matter of debate whether North Korea has the technology to effectively target them or arm them with reliable nuclear weapons.
The North Korean leader’s propensity for belligerent showmanship does not help relax tensions in what is increasingly becoming a volatile region. His propensity keeps South Korea on a nearly permanent state of alert and the US forward forces in a constant show of force from the South China Sea to the Taiwan Strait to the Sea of Japan.
In deed, if not in words, the Philippines and Japan are in close alliance. We share the same security concerns and confront the same regional bullies.
We might not have a formal mutual defense treaty with Japan. Their constitution inhibits her entry into such an arrangement. Nevertheless, there is enough confidence that each country will rush to the defense of the other when push comes to shove.
Our two countries are deeply invested in each other’s prosperity as well as security. We are both deeply committed to a democratic way of life, a free market and a cooperative future for the region we inhabit.
No formal pact is required.