FIRST PERSON
The BSP raised rates by another 50 basis points last Thursday. Despite all the tightening, inflation remains a persistent foe. It is forecast to run at about 6.1 percent this year.
Our inflation for January hit 7.6 percent, higher than expected. We now nurse the highest inflation rate in the ASEAN region, with Indonesia reporting 5.28 percent, Thailand 5.02 percent and Vietnam 4.89 percent.
The reason our inflation rate is running significantly higher is the sharply rising cost of food: rice, pork, chicken, sugar and onions. We have responded by increasing importation while doing little to actually transform our agriculture.
While the price of onions hogged the headlines, the cost of pork and chicken products rose as well – although in less spectacular fashion. The price increases are due to dropping domestic production of these products, making these goods a persistent inflationary factor.
A major reason for dropping domestic production is the threat posed by Avian Influenza (bird flu) and African Swine Fever (ASF). Outbreaks of both epidemics decimated chicken and hog populations that, in turn, produce the supply shortages we have tried to address almost exclusively through increased importation. The risks posed by infections dissuaded investments in our chicken and pork industry, making shortages nearly permanent.
Based on the latest information from the DA’s Bureau of Animal Industry (BAI), about 12 provinces remain affected by the ASF outbreak. The cumulative number of affected areas since ASF broke out in 2019 amounted to 4,308 barangays in 788 municipalities. These are spread across 59 provinces in 15 regions. In a word, the disease threatens farms in the entire archipelago.
Since the first outbreak was reported in the country in September 2019, our total hog population declined dramatically, from 12 million pigs to just 9 million now. The PSA reported that total pork output declined almost 24 percent in the June-October period last year compared to the previous year. It will take about five years to repopulate our pig farms if we begin decisive action now.
Losses from the closure of large commercial pig farms and their allied industries are estimated to cost our economy P100 billion yearly. Add to that the currency drain added food importation causes. Government must act quickly and decisively to arrest the bleeding and encourage our people to invest in chicken and pork production once again.
When the country was hit by COVID-19, we responded with “heavy artillery” by initiating a broadbased vaccination program. We borrowed heavily to purchase enough vaccines as they became available. That saved many lives.
We could do the same against ASF. There are available vaccines, some with certified efficiency rates of 95 percent when pigs between 8 and 10 weeks old are inoculated. Sadly, the BAI has neither certified a vaccine, much less prepared a broad-based inoculation drive, to turn back the epidemic.
Vietnam begins this month a nationwide vaccination program for its hog raisers. They are using a vaccine developed by AVAC Vietnam Co. Ltd. The vaccine, called ASF Live, is the first and only commercially available product proven to safely fight the highly contagious animal disease.
About 600,000 doses of the AVAC vaccine have been administered in Vietnam under rigorous trial procedures. AVAC is the first veterinary vaccine factory in Vietnam certified as meeting the standards of the World Health Organization-Good Manufacturing Practices program. Local safety and efficacy trials have been done here under BAI supervision and in cooperation with our largest food conglomerates.
With the correct policy signals, we could begin vaccinating our hog stock. This will encourage small raisers who might hesitate investing in the face of epidemic.
It will certainly help arrest the scourge of inflation as well. Meat inflation, we see from the numbers, jumped the past year.
Another scourge
Happily, the establishment of a cancer treatment facility at the PGH is among the latest batch of PublicPrivate Partnership projects announced by the Palace. Cancer is a rising cause of death in the country and the resources we have devoted to treating this disease are simply too meager.
There are now new targeted therapies that make cancer a treatable disease. But while efficacious, these treatments cost money.
Using one effective treatment will cost the patient P400,000 for an 18-cycle program. This means that a budget of P1 billion a year will only manage to help 200 patients. According to reports, there are 20,000 new cases for breast cancer alone in the country.
We expect that, over time, the cost of treating cancer will go down as new medications and new technologies evolve. But that is over time.
The high cost of treating cancer will tax the resources of PhilHealth and the rest of our health care system. But we need to face the scourge now. The only way to do that effectively, the country needs to redirect more resources to fighting the disease.
The projected PGH cancer facility will help. But it cannot possibly treat the tens of thousands of cancer patients who need help. We could start by planning for more facilities to meet the needs of all the country’s regions.
Our health needs grossly overshadow the resources we have devoted to meet them. Cancer treatment is only an example. Over the next few years, we should rapidly build up the capacities of our health systems. This will be a challenge.
As in everything, education included, the strength of our health care system is a reflection of our fiscal capacity.