Amb. Chito Sta. Romana Memorial Lecture on China

The Philippine Association for Chinese Studies (PACS) and the Asian Center of the University of the Philippines recently launched the Ambassador Chito Sta. Romana Memorial Lecture series on Feb. 10. Bert Hofman, director of the East Asian Institute and Lee Kuan Yew School of the National University of Singapore, spoke on China’s rise and the implications for ASEAN. It was a lengthy lecture, useful to all who want to understand the effect of China’s influence in the world and in the ASEAN region.

I have decided to share excerpts from the talk that I have personally found most interesting.

Hofman began by sharing a few words about Ambassador Chito Sta. Romana who was being honored by the lecture series. “I regret I never had the pleasure to know Chito personally even though we overlapped twice in Beijing. Chito’s personal experience tied him to China first by force then by choice. After his studies in economics, he was forced to stay in China during a trip in the early 1970s when Ferdinand Marcos declared martial law and it became too risky for Chito and other radical youth to return. Then, when return became possible after relationships between China and the Philippines had been restored, he chose a career in China and became one of the few foreigners with front-row seats in China’s unfolding economic miracle.”

Chito Sta. Romana was one of the student leaders during the famous First Quarter Storm in the early 1970s. He was then student council president at De La Salle and was spokesperson for the Movement for Democratic Philippines, the national coordinating organization for student activists during that era. After the People Power Revolution when democracy was restored with the presidency of Corazon Aquino, Chito and his companions were able to return home from China where he had been in exile for 14 years. He went for a master’s degree at the Fletcher School of International Diplomacy, Tufts University. After graduating, he went on to work for the American Broadcasting Corporation (ABC News), first as its China expert and eventually, Beijing News Bureau head. After retiring from ABC, he returned to the Philippines. Then, in 2016 he was appointed Philippine ambassador to China, which was widely applauded since he was considered the foremost China expert in the Philippines. He passed away unexpectedly in April 2022 in Huangshan, China, at a time when he was making plans to come back home to the Philippines.

The Ambassador Chito Sta. Romana Memorial Lecture series is therefore a fitting tribute to a Filipino who was the country’s foremost expert on China studies and who dedicated his life, even during his student days, to the betterment of the Filipino people that he loved so much.

Among the many topics covered by Bert Hofman’s talk is a question that has always intrigued me: Why did China miss the Industrial Revolution? China was an ancient civilization that at one time was ahead of Europe in its technology. And yet, in 18th and 19th century, China was overtaken by the West in science and technology. Hofman explained, “The scientific revolution in the West became the basis for the Industrial Revolution that enabled the West to rapidly overtake China and other traditional economic powerhouses such as India. Ming Dynasty China had possessed every ingredient of what later made the Industrial Revolution in Europe: coal, steel, steam, paper, typeset printing, gunpowder and much more. It had a well-organized state, a tradition of education and knowledge among the elite and a thriving commercial economy and an abundance of artisans and artisanal industries that catered for the rich elite period. And yet, the Industrial Revolution took place in England at the end of the 18th century, not in China.”

Among the answers to this question of China’s technological lag were the conservative outlook embedded in Confucian philosophy, the lack of competitors in China’s immediate surroundings and the efficiency of the agricultural economy. Hofman also pointed out that intellectuals in the West like Newton, Leibnitz, van Leeuwenhoek, Descartes, Spinoza and other intellectual giants “… were free to think what they wanted as they could move to another principality when their thoughts displeased the rulers.”

There were other reasons for this divergence between China and the West, which cannot all be covered in this space. But one interesting reason for this “great divergence” was pointed out by Hofman as having its roots in the work of the Church: “… the monogamy enforced by the Church in Europe since the 10th to 11th century reduced the size of the extended family and forced nuclear families to trade outside the family. For trade to happen, impartial rules and institutions were needed. This contrasted with China, where larger extended families allowed much of economic life to take place with relatives, thus reducing the need for the institutions of the market economy.”

Hofman did a brief review of the contemporary history of China from Mao Zedong to Deng Xiaoping to Xi Jinping. Towards the end of his talk, Hofman examines the possible future of China. “Despite all of China’s ambitions and its undeniable achievements, past success is no guarantee for future success.”

In terms of per capita GDP, China is a middle-income country which is striving to become a high-income country. However, current history shows that many middle-income countries, e.g. Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, have failed to transition from being middle income for decades to a high-income status.

The question is whether China can change its growth model. There are already signs that this will be a difficult task as growth has shifted from decades of double-digit growth to current modest growth rates. Its demographics with its declining population is now working against China. Its productivity growth has been lackluster.

It is also pointed out that China has a “… growing mountain of debt that has outpaced GDP ever since the Global Financial Crisis.”

After a period of globalization, the world is entering an era of fragmentation. There is an ever-growing split in technology, trade and investment among countries. There is a growing question whether China can compete globally in this new fragmented world.

Hofman’s lecture covered many other topics of great interest to China watchers and scholars.