Rice inflation to remain elevated until Aug – DA

Rice inflation is likely to remain elevated until August and slow down by September when “base effects” start to fade, a ranking official of the Department of Agriculture (DA) said.

Agriculture Assistant Secretary Arnel de Mesa said rice inflation which hit 23.7 percent in February, was mainly due to low base in the previous year.

De Mesa warned rice inflation could remain elevated until August due to base effects.

Nonetheless, the official said the retail price of rice is now declining, thanks to sufficient supply brought about by imports despite the threats of El Niño.

Citing the DA’s price monitoring reports, de Mesa said the average retail price of well-milled rice is now down by P2 to P3 per kilogram on a monthly basis with prevailing prices going down to as low as P50 per kilogram.

He emphasized that rice prices could further ease in the coming weeks due to the upcoming dry season palay harvest that is expected to peak soon.

“Farmgate prices are now decreasing which in turn would drive the prices of rice to go down,” he told reporters in an interview yesterday.

De Mesa added that the softening of international rice prices would provide support to the decrease in domestic rice prices in the coming days.

Citing United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization data, de Mesa said international rice prices are now between $580 and $590 per metric ton, compared to previous quotations of above $600 per metric ton.

The agriculture official reiterated that the country has sufficient rice stocks and will continue to do so due to the upcoming harvest season.

The country’s rice imports as of Feb. 22 has reached 635,817.44 metric tons, over 240 metric tons higher than the 394,553.664 MT combined imports recorded in the months of January and February 2023, based on latest Bureau of Plant Industry data.

“This is the result of the engagements of President Marcos and Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel last year with the importers to bring in supply (in preparation for El Niño,” de Mesa said.

In December 2023, the DA anticipated the arrival of over 570,000 MT of rice until February as a result of private importers’ commitment and certain donations from the country’s trading partners.

“This is the result of the engagements of President Marcos and Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel last year with the importers to bring in supply in preparation for El Niño.”