High demand to feed growth in broiler output

Local broiler production could grow by at least two percent to as much as 1.943 million metric tons (MMT) this year on the back of growing demand as chicken meat remains an affordable commodity for Filipino households.

United Broiler Raisers Association (Ubra) chairman Elias Jose Inciong said his group expects broiler production this year to grow to between 1.758 MMT and 1.943 MMT, with a midpoint of 1.851 MMT. Inciong added that these estimates reflect at least a two percent year-on-year production growth.

“That is conservative already since the industry can grow from four percent to seven percent in a normal year. Current demand is really that huge because of the substitution from pork to chicken (meat),” Inciong said in a recent interview with reporters.

For one, the anticipated series of town fiestas in the second quarter would provide support to demand for chicken meat, Inciong said.

Aside from growing consumption, Inciong noted that layer raisers affected by bird flu have shifted to broiler production to recoup their losses and remain in the poultry industry. Even hog raisers who experienced losses due to African swine fever ventured into chicken meat production.

In terms of heads, Inciong said the country is estimated to produce 1.607 billion birds of broiler this year. The figure is broken down as follows: 391 million in the first quarter, 405 million in the second quarter, 409 million in the third quarter and 402 million in the fourth quarter.

Based on Ubra’s projections, the country’s total chicken meat demand this year could be anywhere between a low of 1.502 MMT and a high of 1.623 MMT. The group estimated that the midpoint demand would be around 1.56 MMT.

Meanwhile, chicken meat imports, excluding mechanically deboned meat, would be about 167,969.52 MT this year.

The groups’ estimates indicated that the country will end the year with a carry-over stocks of about 424,000 MT to around 500,000 MT which, Inciong said, would be sufficient to meet the country’s demand for over three months.