Diffusing tension

In his 2024 State of the Union Address, President Joseph Biden doubled down on his rhetoric against China as he boasted revitalized partnerships in the Pacific. He rattled off India, Australia, Japan, South Korea and the Pacific Islands. He said the United States is standing up against China’s economic practices while standing up for peace across the Taiwan Strait.

There was no direct mention of the ongoing West Philippine Sea conflict nor the Philippines, which will participate in the first trilateral leader’s summit with Japan and the US in April. A priority agenda is ensuring peace and security in the Indo-Pacific. In other words, checkmating the superpower status of China.

Days later, the Potus presented his proposed $895.2-billion defense budget to the US Congress and urged additional funding for deterrence against China (Kyodo). Again, he was silent on the WPS. He namechecked the usual countries as vital partners, except the Philippines. Was it not just last year when Biden – in his White House meeting with President Bongbong Marcos Jr. – declared that he could not think of a better partner to have than the Philippines when facing the new challenges in the region (AP)? Did he inadvertently overlook our country’s role in stabilizing the Indo-Pacific geopolitical tension?

America’s rah-rah boys in the Marcos administration must be chagrined by this development. Biden’s attitude seems to indicate that the WPS issue is not his government’s top priority. The Potus also emphatically stated he “wants competition and not conflict with China.” For his part, PBBM said he wants to avoid any war. In a Bloomberg interview, Marcos said the Philippines has no interest in attacking anything or anyone. He would also not allow the country’s military bases to be used for offensives against China. The Biden-Marcos pronouncements certainly put a douse on the attempts by government officials to drag America into a potential military conflict with China. At least for now.

I have observed PBBM’s over-reliance on the foreign policy advice of his close relatives, House Speaker Martin Romualdez and Ambassador Babe Romualdez. Alarmingly, the Romualdez cousins seem to be taking a page out of the discredited playbook employed by the late President Aquino in the infamous Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal stand-off in 2012. The Aquino government thought that the Americans, through the Mutual Defense Treaty of 1951, would help us expel the Chinese Navy. Upon the mediation of the US State Department, we pulled out BRP Gregorio del Pilar from the shoal, thinking that China would do the same. The latter refused to withdraw and denied agreeing to any deal with the US or the Philippines (The STAR). This is how we lost Panatag to the Chinese.

I believe the Ambassador knows we do not stand a chance against the military might of China. So, he is banking on the support of Uncle Sam in case a clash between the Philippines and China ensues. Recently, US Secretary Antony Blinken assured the country of America’s ironclad commitment to defend us against any foreign attack in the Pacific, which now includes the WPS.

But will America come to our actual aid? I do not think so. For the United States, our contestation with China over the WPS will always take a back seat to the decades-old row between China and Taiwan. It also confirms my suspicion that we do not occupy our former colonizer’s foremost thoughts vis-a-vis regional security matters. It does not matter whether America sees the country as an unsinkable warship to aid its hegemonic war against the Middle Kingdom.

Further, America has already spread itself too thin in the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Israel. Entering a direct conflict with China at this juncture is akin to economic suicide for the US. The Asian economic superpower is one of America’s largest trading partners and its biggest creditor.

Improving relations

Last week, I shared my views on the China-Philippines relations in a closed-door seminar organized by the International Strategy Research Center. I also spoke before the students and faculty of the prestigious Tsinghua University.

My Chinese colleagues and audience admitted that our diplomatic ties have reached a low point because America has openly taken the Philippine side. Two recent collision incidents involving Filipino and Chinese vessels have heightened bilateral tension. In one case, four Filipino crewmen suffered injuries. When I saw the photos and videos of both collisions, the Philippine vessels appeared to be at fault. The Filipino-manned ships collided with the left side of the Chinese boats. In maritime law, the road rules at sea are like the land traffic rules in right-driving countries. The Philippines follows the left-hand traffic.

According to the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea or Colregs, a vessel proceeding along the course of a narrow channel or fairway shall keep as near to the outer limit of the channel or fairway which lies on her starboard side as is safe and practicable (Rule 9). The starboard is on the right-hand side of a boat when facing the bow. The left-hand side is called the port side (Clipper Marine Ltd). As a rule, seamen must navigate vessels on the starboard side. Therefore, boats approaching head-on must pass port to port. When boats are about to cross each other, the one coming from a vessel’s starboard side has the right of way. If a boat refuses to give way, the other vessel must take action to avoid collision (Maritime Safety of Queensland). I hope that both parties would strictly comply with navigation rules to prevent any sea mishap in the WPS.

As I stated in a global maritime symposium last year, only 72 square miles out of the approximately 1.35 million square miles of the WPS can be awarded sovereignty and jurisdiction. The rest forms part of the high seas, which claimant countries can declare a heritage zone for comanagement and joint exploration activities.

Despite the souring relations, China should invest more Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects in the Philippines to create economic activity and employment for many Filipinos. The infrastructure project beneficiaries will forever remember China’s goodwill.

Only two Metro Manila bridges under the BRI were implemented. In comparison, China has funded several Southeast Asian megaprojects such as Lao PDR’s ChinaLaos Railway, Indonesia’s Jakarta-Bandung Highspeed and Vietnam’s Cat Linh-Dong Ha Metro (Xinhua).

The Chinese people should accept the fact that most Filipinos are pro-American. But it does not mean that they want to go to war with China. Further, the Chinese government and media should completely ignore the inflammatory rhetoric of some Filipino officials. They should only listen to the pronouncements of our Chief Executive.