China readies blockade of Panatag – US expert

'4 China coast guard, 26 militia vessels to stop Atin Ito regatta'

Beijing is deploying a “huge force” to prevent a flotilla of Filipino fishing boats and other small vessels under the Atin Ito Coalition from reaching Panatag or Scarborough Shoal, according to a US-based maritime expert.

The Atin Ito Coalition’s “peace and solidarity regatta” of up to 100 fishing boats sets sail today for Panatag to dramatize Filipinos’ determination to defend the country’s sovereignty.

“China is sending a huge force to blockade Scarborough Shoal ahead of the Atin Ito civilian convoy…,” SeaLight director Ray Powell wrote on X. “By this time tomorrow, at least four coast guard and 26 large maritime militia ships on blockade (not counting ‘dark’ vessels).”

Powell, a former US Air Force official and defense attaché, has been tracking movements in the South China Sea.

The Atin Ito trip to Panatag culminates on May 17.

“This will be by far the largest blockade I’ll have ever tracked at Scarborough. China seems determined to aggressively enforce its claim over the shoal, of which it seized control from the Philippines

in 2012 as summarized by AsiaMTI,” he said.

The Chinese “blockade” reportedly consists of at least four China Coast Guard (CCG) vessels and 26 large Chinese maritime militia (CMM) ships.

But Philippine Coast Guard-West Philippine Sea (PCG-WPS) spokesman Commodore Jay Tarriela said Powell was only making a “prediction.”

“Ray Powell is using the satellite to monitor the movement of vessels. He is forecasting that the (Chinese) vessel to Bajo de Masinloc (has) the intention to block the sail of the Atin Ito to the BDM, but this is just a forecast, a prediction of what will transpire,” Tarriela said at a briefing.

He stressed that the Atin Ito journey to Panatag is not sanctioned by the PCG or by the Task Force on the West Philippine Sea (TF-WPS) but is assured of protection against harm and harassment.

“For the PCG, our objective is to ensure the safety of those who would be joining. We have to make sure that they would not be harassed or insaid. jured, in case they would be harassed by the Chinese Coast Guard,” he said.

Tarriela added that Admiral Ronnie Gil Gavan, commandant of the PCG, “had already issued a directive that if ever the Atin Ito initiative pushes through, then the Philippine Coast Guard would be proactive to ensure their safety.”

He also said the PCG has been successful in preventing reclamation at Escoda (Sabina) Shoal because the PCG’s biggest vessel, the 97-meter BRP Teresa Magbanua, has been anchored in the area for the last 29 days.

Organizers of the Panatag journey vowed not to be deterred by the heavy presence of Chinese vessels in the area.

No turning back

Rafaela David, Akbayan party president and Atin Ito co-convenor, said the civilian mission is a legitimate exercise of Filipinos’ right to movement within the country’s territorial waters.

“It only underscores the urgency of civilianizing the area in response to China’s militarization,” David Foreign nationals from Japan and Sweden are reportedly joining the activity.

National Security Council assistant director general Jonathan Malaya said the government would help in the security and safety of the mission.

“Not any one of the government agencies are involved in the planning or organizing of this civilian mission. If they invite foreigners, they are well within their rights to do so,” Malaya said at a public briefing.

“We at the National Security Council have no objections for them to hold civilian mission because Bajo de Masinloc is within our waters,” he said.

Meanwhile, retired Supreme Court associate justice Antonio Carpio said the Philippines should file another case against China for its marine destruction in Escoda Shoal off Palawan.

“We should file that to give attention, to focus this illegal island building by China and put this on the world agenda,” he said in a television interview.

Carpio said the reclamation attempt in Escoda Shoal could be a “precursor of an island building by China” and the putting up of an outpost near Recto (Reed) Bank, which is said to be rich in oil and gas deposits.

“If they succeed in putting up an outpost near Reed Bank, that would be giving us more difficulty in getting the gas in Reed Bank,” he said.

Apart from the filing of a case, Carpio said the PCG should have a permanent presence in Escoda Shoal to prevent Beijing from building artificial islands in the area.

“If we have a 24-hour presence there every day, I don’t think they can put up their artificial island. We can station continuously our coast guard in that area and I don’t think they can create anything because we will be there,” he said.

The Philippines could also ask its allies to jointly patrol near Recto Bank, Escoda Shoal and Rozul Reef, as the two are the nearest geologic features “where China could create an artificial island to prevent us from developing Reed Bank.”

A successful reclamation of Sandy Cay and Escoda Shoal by the Chinese, using crushed corals, could make the Armed Forces of the Philippines’ rotation and resupply to Ayungin Shoal more difficult.

Meanwhile, as the government is trying to boost the country’s defense and invite allies, the Pilipinong Nagkaisa para sa Soberanya (P1NAS) has issued a statement denouncing the deployment of the Typhon missile system at the Laoag International Airport.

The group’s spokesman Antonio Tinio said they were strongly condemning the deployment of the US Army’s Typhon missile system at the Laoag airport during the Balikatan 2024 exercises.

According to P1NAS, the deployment violates international humanitarian law and directly threatens civilian safety.

The statement referred to a post on X dated May 5 by General Charles Flynn, commander of the US Army Pacific, showcasing the presence of the Typhon Strategic Mid-Range Fires System (SMRF) at the airport.

“P1NAS demands the immediate withdrawal of consent for the deployment of the Typhon missile system and calls for its removal from Philippine soil,” Tinio said.