Butler and free agents approach moment of truth
Understand, this is a year from when it all happened. Jimmy Butler joined the Miami Heat on July 6, 2019. Kawhi Leonard signed with the Los Angeles Clippers three days later. And the day after that, the Philadelphia 76ers backed up the dump truck for … gulp … Tobias Harris.
Typically, a year later, we would have definitive reads. But now, nothing is typical.
So as we look back on the opening-week madness of 2019 NBA free agency, the reality is that weighing the merits and shortcomings of that process well could come down to the eight games to close the 2019-20 season and then the playoffs that will follow.
Quite literally bubble basketball could determine if 2019 free-agency bubbles have burst or yet could provide champagne effervesce.
In some cases, even that won’t be enough, with the book to remain open for months to come on the shift of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving to the Brooklyn Nets, or even the re-signing of Klay Thompson by the Golden State Warriors.
A look at how the NBA resumption ultimately could cast a telling perspective of the free-agency Class of 2019:
JIMMY BUTLER: What the Heat need from Butler from an initial validation standpoint on his four-year, $142 million contract is a playoff-series win, something the franchise has not had since the first round in 2016 against the Charlotte Hornets.
The Heat have yet to see brooding Butler. A quick playoff demise could change that.
HORFORD-TOBIAS HARRIS: In moving on from Butler and committing $109 million over four years to Horford and $180 million over five years to Harris, the Philadelphia 76ers moved into NBA Finals-orbust mode.
Now, with such an uneven regular season, it leaves the 76ers’ 2019 free agency as either boom or bust based on the postseason. At those salary figures, there is no middle ground.
KEMBA WALKER: At $141 million over four years, Walker was expected to be the Celtics’ leading man. Then Jayson Tatum happened.
So now comes the moment to determine whether the Hornets were wise to walk away from Walker, who has appeared in only 11 career playoff games, never advancing out of the first round over his nine seasons.
The Celtics have significant playoff visions, a vantage point heretofore unseen for Walker.
KAWHI LEONARD: The Clippers made their three-year, $103 million investment well aware that, amid the seemingly mandated load management, it would never have been about the regular season with Kawhi.
And, still, there also is a ticking clock, with Leonard (and Paul George) holding opt outs for the 2021 offseason.
If not playoff success this season for the Clippers with Leonard, then when?
KRISTAPS PORZINGIS: This is the type of moment of truth Porzingis never was afforded in New York, a chance to prove his value in the playoffs.
For the Mavericks, the five-year, $158 million contract extended last summer was about building something alongside Luka Doncic that could make a Western Conference playoff statement. Statement time is at hand.
KHRIS MIDDLETON: The five-year, $178 million contract was as much about the Milwaukee Bucks showing Giannis Antetokounmpo a willingness to spend as it was about hoping to show Antetokounmpo a path beyond last season’s Eastern Conference finals.
Middleton has been very good this season. But something closer to great might be required in the playoffs to keep Giannis’ attention when it comes to extension time.
MALCOLM BROGDON: The Indiana Pacers put themselves in an interesting spot by going three years at $85 million with Brogdon. The move could serve as an enticement for Victor Oladipo to extend this summer, or leave the Pacers as a middle-ground one-and-done playoff team.
Now, with Oladipo opting to bypass Disney, as well as Brogdon’s positive Covid test, a 2020 playoff read might be lost. Or, with a breakout postseason by Brogdon, it could show the Bucks (and Giannis) what they allowed to get away.
KENTAVIOUS CALDWELL-POPE: To some, the two-year, $16 million contract was as much about Caldwell-Pope’s working relationship with LeBron James and James’ agency. But with Avery Bradley bypassing the NBA’s resumption, this could be a moment, after a solid season, when dividends are provided from last summer’s agreement.
Or would you rather trust Dion Waiters? Or J.R. Smith? (With, of course, all due respect to Alex Caruso.
JJ REDICK: Another relatively small deal (in NBA dollars) that could provide significant payoff, if Reddick, with the two-year, $26 million deal he signed last summer, is able to get Zion Williamson and the New Orleans Pelicans into the playoffs.
And if there are playoffs for Redick, it could be (as possibly with Butler) a reminder of what the 76ers let get away.