No final word yet on how long would the race be against Covid

Fifteen months into the Covid-19 pandemic which has killed more than 2.3mn people worldwide there is no indication of an end to the unprecedented outbreak. The first Covid-19 cases were reported in December 2019 in the Chinese city of Wuhan, which witnessed over the last few days an international investigation led by the World Health Organisation (WHO). Experts believe the disease originated in bats and could have been transmitted to humans via another mammal. The mission to Wuhan failed to identify the source of the virus but poured cold water on the theory that it leaked from the local virology laboratory.

At a press conference on Friday in Geneva alongside Wuhan mission leader Peter Ben Embarek, WHO directorgeneral Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the team had conducted a “very important scientific exercise in very difficult circumstances”. He confirmed that all hypotheses remain open and require further analysis and studies. Tedros said he hoped a summary report from the mission would be published over the next few days, with the full final report to follow in the coming weeks. While welcoming a fall in the global number of reported Covid-19 cases for a fourth consecutive week, which he put down to countries implementing public health measures more stringently, the WHO chief also warned that complacency is as dangerous as the virus itself.

This has to be read in tandem with the European Union health agency chief saying on Friday that the coronavirus will probably continue to circulate long-term despite the roll-out of vaccines. Andrea Ammon, the head of the Stockholm-based European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, was of the view that the virus “seems very well adapted to humans. So we should be prepared that it will remain with us. It would not be the first virus that is with us forever, so it is not an unusual feature for a virus.” There is particular concern that the vaccines may not be as effective against some variants of the virus, especially the South African and Brazilian ones. Ammon pointed out that vaccines for the seasonal flu have to be adapted annually as the virus that causes it changes. “It might turn out that (the coronavirus) goes the same way, or that at one point it remains stable and we can use one vaccine for a longer period,” she told AFP.

Yet another cause for caution is the news that the coronavirus variant first found in the British region of Kent is a concern because it is mutating and so could undermine the protection given by vaccines against developing Covid-19, the head of the UK’s genetic surveillance programme said. Her opinion is that the British variant was likely “to sweep the world, in all probability”. Sharon Peacock, director of the Covid-19 Genomics UK consortium, said vaccines were so far effective against the variants in the UK, but that mutations could potentially undermine the shots. “What’s concerning about this is that the 1.1.7 variant that we have had circulating for some weeks and months is beginning to mutate again and get new mutations which could affect the way that we handle the virus in terms of immunity and effectiveness of vaccines,” Peacock told the BBC.

There are three major known variants that are worrying scientists: the South African variant, known by scientists as 20I/501Y.V2 or B.1.351; the British variant known as 20I/501Y. V1 or B.1.1.7; and the Brazilian variant known as P.1. The two Covid-19 vaccines developed by Pfizer/BioNTech and AstraZeneca protect against the main British variant. As Ammon said, “Everybody’s fed up with the measures, but when you’re running a long distance course... (you) have to run the last kilometres.” But the irony is that nobody knows how much more is left to run.

There are three major known variants that are worrying scientists: the South African, British and Brazilian