Pollsters weigh in on “battleground” states as Trump and Biden step up campaigns
AMERICA is in the middle of what is often described as the most historic US election in a generation and all eyes are on the so-called battleground states or states that remain competitivethat is, either candidate has a chance to win.
In the latest Elections 2020 Virtual Reporting Tour (VRT), a programme to enable international journalists to remotely cover the 2020 US elections, Jon McHenry, a Republican pollster, and Margie Omero, a Democratic pollster, tackled swing states in this election, the candidates’ strategies and what current polling says about the race’s state.
According to McHenry, the states to keep an eye on in the 2020 presidential race are the states that
ipped in 2016 such as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. He added in the list Florida and Iowa that had voted for President Barack Obama in 2012 and voted for President Donald Trump in 2016.
In addition, he named any state that has decided by five points or fewer as critical to the tight presidential race, namely, Arizona and Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine, and North Carolina.
McHenry also said President Trump needs to win Florida plus one more of the key battleground states in order to be re-elected. Notably, he drew attention to the importance of senior voters in the competitive states.
The caveat there, I would say, and those of you who remember election night in 2000, watch what the seniors have done in Florida. If President Trump is losing seniors, but they say that he’s won the state, that might not actually be true by the time they count all the votes. I would be very surprised if he wins Florida while he loses those seniors. That was one of the telltale signs on election night in 2000, where the exit polls said that Governor Bush at the time, then President Bush had won seniors, but he’d lost the state. And that just didn’t make any sense. So, keep an eye on what the seniors do on some of these states, as well as what the reported vote is, he said.
For her part, Omero emphasised on the surge in early voting, whether voting by mail or in-person, and added even the method of voting now has become partisan in a way.
Obviously, that’s problematic for the long haul, and it may be problematic in terms of how people accept the results of the election. But the truth of the matter is the fact that people are voting now in uences how campaigns are communicating with voters. They need to be communicating now, they need to not wait until the last minute to try to get their message across. They need to get their message across sooner, because voting is happening sooner, she remarked.
On the tipping points in this year’s swing states, Omero pointed out the difference in how Americans are going to approach the election relative to the issues or concerns that are important to them such as healthcare, coronavirus and the economic impact. She also included in the list the Supreme Court, in particular, the ongoing confirmation hearing of Trump nominee Judge Amy Coney Barrett who people feel is very much a divergent from where the public is on really big issues.
In terms of demographic, Omero said no group is monolithic adding that changing demographics in a lot of states is what drives which states become more purple (swing states) or blue (Democrats) or red (Republicans).
Trump needs to win Florida plus one more of the key battleground states in order to be reelected. Notably, he drew attention to the importance of senior voters in the competitive states.