Myanmar’s High-Risk Election
Questions are being raised about the credibility of pushing through with November’s general election in the time of a pandemic
In Myanmar, the virulent second wave of COVID-19, which has turned the locked-down commercial capital of Yangon into a ghost city, poses a growing risk. Now there are rising questions about the credibility of pushing through with November’s general election in the time of a pandemic.
Medical authorities are struggling to cope with between 1,000-2000 new cases each day and health experts say Myanmar’s public health system is now at breaking point. From a once comfortable position of only 3 4 confirmed cases on August 16, confirmed cases have now skyrocketed to 32,351 and 65 deaths just two months later.
The National League for Democracy (NLD) government and their Union Election Commission (UEC) has responded with major restrictions on election campaigning banning rallies and mass meetings while conveying a strong aversion to any serious debate over the option of postponement.
This year’s election campaign has already been curtailed beyond all recognition by essential COVID-19 guidelines clamping down on public rallies and meetings and imposing travel restrictions. In September, 24 opposition parties called for a postponement, a proposal that was peremptorily dismissed by the ruling NLD.
For a great many voters, their paramount concern is staying safe. Avoiding any exposure to the virus has outpaced interest in the November election. But it is also undeniable that there are millions of die-hard Aung San Suu Kyi followers who believe they must win the election for “Mother Suu,” leader of nation and chair of the NLD. They are expected to faithfully show up at polling stations, whatever the risk of the virus spreading further.
In spite of the worsening COVID-19 crisis, neither the UEC nor the NLD have wavered in their dogged refusal to consider a postponement. No debate has taken place on the merits, disadvantages, and contingencies of moving the election date. This leaves Myanmar with no Plan B should surging COVID-19 cases abort the election in the final weeks.
If Myanmar were to postpone, it would not be alone. Many countries have already postponed national or local elections in 2020, including Australia, Canada, France, Germany, India, Italy, Romania, Serbia, Sri Lanka, Switzerland, and the U.K. Two-thirds of all countries scheduled to hold elections in 2020 have decided to postpone them.
On the other hand, South Korea showed with its parliamentary election on April 15 that an election can be safely conducted for voters. But South Korea had careful planning and strict precautions in place: temperature checks on all voters, protective gear for polling-station workers, and separate voting stations outside of hospitals for the infected.
Myanmar is far from being in the same league of preparedness as South Korea.
The UEC measures for polling day will include an increased number of polling stations (50,000, up from 40,000) to provide a greater degree of social distancing and staff wearing personal protective gear. Voters will be instructed to wash their hands before casting a ballot. All this can help to reduce potential infection, but falls far short of South Korea’s comprehensive regime.
Public health expert Dr. Tin Myint (currently in Canada) said in early October, “If people are practicing all the UEC guidelines they need not postpone the election right now, but if the pandemic becomes worse and out of control in the coming weeks, the government should consider postponing it for four to six weeks.” The Myanmar government and the UEC have batted away the call by 24 opposition parties, including the pro-military USDP, for a postponement. Among the 24 were a number of new independent parties, including the People’s Party, headed by former 88 Generation student leader U Ko Ko Gyi the People’s Pioneer Party, chaired by the wealthy gem tycoon Daw Thet Thet Khine and the activist Democratic Party for a New Society.
In the absence of any public debate the government finally provided some explanation to local media on September 1 . NLD spokesman Myo Nyunt claimed,
“Postponing the election when it is uncertain how the situation might develop in the future, will simply result in more problems including a political crisis on top of the current public health and economic problems.” This speculative comment about a hypothetical political crisis is understood by observers to indicate concern by some NLD senior figures about the fragile state of democracy. There is fear that any postponement of the polls would be a god-send to the pro-military USDP.
The 2008 Constitution requires a new government to assume office by February 2021. Thus any postponement beyond February could perhaps trigger political instability and a constitutional crisis.
However, this scenario would not come into play if the opposition parties accepted a four to six week postponement, with polling day arranged prior to January 31.
Spokesman Myo Nyunt, however, argued, “Delaying the election even by one and a half months won’t make the situation better. That’s why we believe we should hold the election if things are not getting worse.”