Remittances to emerging markets to increase by 2.6% in 2021: OBG
Remittances to Europe and Central Asia, however, are predicted to fall by 3.2 percent, says OBG report
AS emerging markets around the world continue their recovery from COVID-19, remittances are playing a key role in supporting the economic rebound, Oxford Business Group (OBG) has said in a report released on Wednesday.
In mid-May, the report said, the World Bank upgraded its forecast for remittances to low- and middle-income countries for 2021, predicting flows of $553 billion over the course of the year, reflecting a growth rate of 2.6 percent.
This is to be led by Latin America and the Caribbean, with a predicted increase of 4.9 percent, followed by South Asia (3.5 percent), Middle East and orth Africa (2.6 percent), subSaharan Africa (2.6 percent) and East Asia and the Pacific (2.1 percent).
Remittances to Europe and Central Asia are predicted to fall by 3.2 percent.
While many of these figures may seem moderate, the report said, some individual countries have experienced dramatic spikes in the amount of money transferred home by expats abroad.
For example, remittances grew by 50.2 percent year-on-year in Morocco between anuary and May, 21.8 percent in Mexico ( anuaryMay), 20.8 percent in Sri Lanka ( anuary-April) and 19.7 percent in Kenya ( an- une).
Conversely, half-yearly remittance flows to Indonesia and igeria have experienced double-digit contractions, at 13 percent and 24 percent respectively.
These regional and national discrepancies are attributable to various factors. For example, the report said, while a majority of Moroccan and Mexican expats live in the E and S, respectively, which are moving ahead with their economic recoveries, Indonesia sources a large proportion of its remittances from countries such as Saudi Arabia and Malaysia, both of which suffered significantly as a result of pandemicrelated shutdowns.
Meanwhile, in igeria’s case,
many analysts believe that a dysfunctional foreign exchange market has resulted in remittances being pushed towards informal, undocumented channels.
The largely positive outlook comes on the back of a better-thanexpected year for remittances in 2020. Despite the World Bank in April last year predicting a 19.7 percent fall in full-year 2020 remittances to low- and middle-income countries, flows proved to be remarkably consistent, with the bank currently estimating that the drop was only to the tune of 1.6 percent.
In fact, remittances actually increased last year in Latin America and the Caribbean (6.5 percent), South Asia (5.2 percent) and the Middle East and orth Africa region (2.3 percent). It was only sharper falls in flows to sub-Saharan Africa (-12.5 percent), Europe and Central Asia (-9.7 percent) and East Asia and the Pacific (-7.9%) that brought the overall growth rate into the negative.
However, further highlighting the diverse nature of remittance flows and their resilience throughout 2020, sub-Saharan Africa’s fall was largely due to a dramatic drop of 28 percent in igeria. Excluding igeria, the region’s remittances actually increased by 2.3 percent last year.
The main reasons behind the stronger-than-expected flows included substantial fiscal stimulus packages that resulted in more positive economic conditions in host countries, many of which are developed nations a shift in flows from cash to digital and from informal to formal channels and movements in oil prices and currency exchange rates.
The strong flow of remittances has also highlighted their importance to many emerging market economies.
For example, the report said, the World Bank estimates that remittances make up 38 percent of GDP in Tonga, 33 percent in Lebanon, 27 percent in the Kyrgyz Republic and 24 percent in both El Salvador and Honduras. Other ‘yellow slice’ countries that derive significant portions of GDP from remittances include the Philippines (9.6 percent), Sri Lanka (8.8 percent), Egypt (8.2 percent) and Morocco (6.5 percent).
To further emphasise their importance, remittances to low- and middle-income countries last year ($540 billion) surpassed the sum of foreign direct investment ($259 billion) and overseas development assistance ($179 billion).
With remittances expected to increase by another 2.2 percent to $565 billion in 2022, there are concerted efforts under way to try to reduce the cost of transfers.
One of these is the Remittance Community Task Force, launched at the outset of the pandemic by the
’s International Fund for Agricultural Development. In ovember the group published a series of policy recommendations calling for increased transparency on the costs involved in transferring money, as well as suggested requirements for governments.
Despite these initiatives, costs remain high. In the fourth quarter of last year the average global cost of sending $200 was 6.5 percent, more than double the ’s Sustainable Development Goal of 3 percent. While the figure was lowest in South Asia, at 4.9 percent, it rose to 8.2 percent in less developed regions such as subSaharan Africa.