Russia sees long-term confrontation with NATO: Lithuanian intel
The extent and speed of the Russian military reforms would depend on how the war in Ukraine turns out, the Lithuanian intelligence services said. Russia will be able to maintain the current intensity for a further two years, they estimate.
RUSSIA has the capacity to continue the war in Ukraine and expand its military capabilities directed towards the West, Lithuania’s intelligence services said on Thursday.
“Russia is allocating enormous resources to the war in Ukraine and shows no inclination to de-escalate the situation, even though it is failing to achieve its operational objectives,” the intelligence services wrote in an annual report.
“At the same time, Russia is preparing for a long-term confrontation with NATO and has embarked on a major reform of its armed forces,” it added.
According to the report, Russia will need up to a decade to implement its military reform aims, but some of the reforms have begun in Kaliningrad and western Russia.
“Confrontation does not mean that war is inevitable. We should view long-term confrontation as Cold War 2.0,” Colonel Elegijus Paulavicius of the military intelligence agency told the BNS news agency.
Large mobilizations could be held close to the border, he said.
The extent and speed of the Russian military reforms would depend on how the war in Ukraine turns out, the Lithuanian intelligence services said. Russia will be able to maintain the current intensity for a further two years, they estimate.
While the war is costing more than expected, high prices for Russian oil, state investment in the defence industry and successful evasion of Western sanctions mean that the Russian economy is doing better than expected. Lithuania, a NATO member, shares a border with the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad and with Belarus, a key Russian ally.
Meanwhile, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, has held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin about the security situation at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant in Ukraine.
The two also discussed “other non-proliferation global challenges” at the meeting in Sochi on the Black Sea, Grossi said on Wednesday on the online platform X, the former Twitter. Grossi spoke of an “important exchange with the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin in Sochi.”
Russia is seen as a state that could exert diplomatic influence on Iran and its growing nuclear programme. According to the Russian news agency Interfax, Putin emphasized Russia’s intention to cooperate with the IAEA. Neither Grossi nor the Kremlin commented on further details of the meeting. Grossi had previously said that he wanted to address safety concerns in connection with a possible restart of the currently decommissioned reactors in Zaporizhzhya.