Arab News

Business with the East will be essential to KSA’s reform plans — and it is not all about oil.

- FRANK KANE

THE top-level Saudi Arabian delegation that will spend the next month touring some of the most important Asian economies is a straw in the wind of changing global trade patterns and a sign of the importance the Kingdom lays on the rising economic power of the East.

It comes at a crucial time for Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform plan and the National Transforma­tion Program (NTP), which as I wrote last week have got off to a good start in their first full year. But the Asian tour also takes place amid more uncertaint­y and volatility in the world’s markets.

Much of this is focused on the Asian countries the Saudi party will be visiting, and much of it has to do with the new radical approach to world trade under US President Donald Trump.

It is no coincidenc­e that, despite the fact there is a new president in the White House, Saudi Arabia has prioritize­d a trip to Asia over a visit to Washington. overtook the US as the world’s biggest energy consumer. China has been increasing­ly looking to Russia as its oil supplier, so the challenge will be to persuade Beijing that Saudi Arabia can provide better quality crude, at a more competitiv­e price, without the geopolitic­al strings that go with Russia.

China needs the comfort of energy reliabilit­y as it faces economic challenges on several fronts, as it continues along what Goldman Sachs calls its “bumpy decelerati­on” in growth. Beijing is committed to a gross domestic product (GDP) growth target of 6.5 percent this year, and hitting that will require fine-tuning of policies toward infrastruc­ture versus consumer spending, as well as continued scrutiny of the financial system. Consistenc­y of oil energy would remove one variable from the complex Chinese economic picture.

Japan, the third biggest economy in the world and Saudi Arabia’s second biggest export market, could also be on the cusp of change. After decades of the deflationa­ry doldrums, there are signs that “Abenomics” — the economic policies pursued by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe — is working, and there could be some measurable growth this year. Like China, energy-importing Japan needs continuity of supply to underpin this possible recovery.

The Tokyo Stock Exchange is also one of the great financial markets of the world, and could be the favored location in the Asian time zone for future possible share listings by Saudi companies.

The other two main stops on the Saudi tour are Malaysia and Indonesia, which have both traditiona­lly had strong ties with the Kingdom. Both are oil producers, but are still net importers of energy, so while the dialogue may involve energy exports, it is also likely to center on production and exploratio­n techniques and investment. Both are relatively high- growth economies benefiting from the eastward economic tilt.

It is not all about oil, however. Saudi Arabia is at the early stages of a long-term strategy for economic transforma­tion and it wants to explain and elaborate on its plans with the most important trading centers of the world, which these days lie to the east.

President Trump may turn his back on the world, but the world will just shrug and get on with business. Frank Kane is an award-winning business journalist based in Dubai. He can be reached on Twitter @frankkaned­ubai

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