Haider Al-Abadi visit highlights continued US-Iraq partnership

In his first meeting with Trump, Al-Abadi will likely stress “the partnership in the war against Daesh, which Trump has made his top priority in the Middle East,” said Daniel Serwer, director of the Conflict Management Program at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

In the battle for Mosul particularly, where Iraqi forces and allied groups have made advances in the last month, “a lot depends on both the regular Iraqi security forces and the ( mostly Shiite) Popular Mobilization Forces that Baghdad provides, in addition to the Kurdish Peshmerga that Irbil has made available,” added Serwer. Al- Abadi “is critical to maintaining that joint military effort.”

Beyond Mosul, Serwer said Al- Abadi “will want to develop a rapport with Trump that helps Iraq to recover from what amounts to a civil war.”

One of the concerns Al- Abadi might have is “Kurdish independence ambitions, which are likely to emerge as a major issue once the Islamic State (Daesh) is defeated.” He will test the waters on Trump’s ambiguous position so far on the Kurdish question, said Serwer.

Politically, Al- Abadi’s visit “can be double- edged,” said Slim. “It shows Al- Abadi’s ability to strike an independent position vis- a- vis Iran at a time the Trump administration is endorsing a more hawkish policy toward Iran in the Middle East.” This sentiment, Slim said, “should go down well in the Arab region, especially the Gulf.” But his visit “could be used by his political opponents at home to position him in the camp critical of Iran, especially as Iraq prepares to enter an election season.”

Serwer saw the counter-Iran push as one that preceded the Trump administration. “The Americans in the past have wanted Al-Abadi to resist Iranian political, economic and military pressure, and to provide for some sort of demobilization of the Popular Mobilization Forces post-Mosul, as well as more inclusion of Sunnis in Iraq’s governance.”

This attitude “will likely continue, but it is unclear whether the Trump administration will worry about Iraq’s internal stability or try to withdraw American forces quickly and leave Baghdad to its own devices.”

In the Trump administration, Defense Secretary James Mattis and National Security Adviser HR McMaster, both of whom served in Iraq, “will set the tone for the US-Iraq relationship,” said Slim.

This could lead to a departure from the Obama policy, with both generals advancing “a long- term process and mechanism for the US military to stay in Iraq in advisory and training capacities,” Slim added. Such plans will rely on Al-Abadi’s efforts and political fortunes, which he is hoping to improve during his Washington visit.