Turkey, Netherlands economic relationship will outlast feud: Analysts
ANKARA: Foreign policy analysts say that despite the increased tensions between the Netherlands and Turkey, the two countries are economically dependent on each other and that “demonizing” the West will not work in the long run.
The question of how the two countries will end their escalating feud follows Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen’s call on Sunday that his Turkish counterpart, Binali Yildirim, delay a visit planned for later this month because of “tensions” between Ankara and the Netherlands.
“Such a visit could not take place in light of the current attacks by Turkey against the Netherlands. Therefore, I proposed to my Turkish colleague to postpone our meeting,” Rasmussen said in a statement.
“In normal circumstances, it would be a pleasure to welcome ( Yildirim) with whom I had a frank and constructive dialogue on Dec. 10 in Ankara,” he added. Yildirim’s visit had been planned for March 20, according to Danish radio station DR.
A diplomatic row has erupted between Turkey and the Netherlands after the Dutch prevented top Turkish ministers from holding rallies ahead of a referendum on expanding President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s powers.
Ahmet K. Han, international relations professor at Istanbul Kadir Has University, said the Netherlands would refrain from further escalating tension as it has already violated diplomatic practices by bringing the scandal to the current point.
“The focal point of Turkey-Netherlands relations is trade,” Han told Arab News. “The latest statement of Turkey’s Economy Minister Nihat Zeybekci is therefore noteworthy in underlying that Turkey would not use any economic sanctions against the Netherlands.”
“Dutch companies have invested billions of euros in Turkey, especially in the oil industry with the acquisition of Turkey’s national oil company Petrol Ofisi by Dutch Vitol Group. It would not be wise to impose economic restrictions against the Netherlands considering the tough economic climate that prevails in Turkey,” he added.
Since 2002, Dutch companies have invested over €20 billion ($21.4 billion) in Turkey, while Turkey invested about €11 billion in the Netherlands during the same period.
Han expects that after a while Turkey would opt for de-escalation of tensions with EU member states.
“However, we can expect Turkey to retaliate in kind to the latest decision of the Netherlands in declaring Turkey’s minister of family and social policies, Fatma Betul Kaya, as persona non-grata,” he said.
Turkish authorities repeatedly underlined that the Dutch ambassador to Ankara, who is currently on leave, is no longer welcome.
“European countries put Turkey as a menu item over their election table, while Turkey’s own fragility in terms of its domestic politics contributed to the metastasis of the current crises to adjacent fields,” Han said. “Turkey is playing such a high stakes poker game in domestic politics that non-domestic agendas are seen either as secondary or as instruments of domestic politics with their long-term impacts being totally disregarded.”
However, Han said if Turkey’s domestic political agenda is important, it should not be forgotten that other countries also have domestic political agendas that are equally important to them.
Andre de Munter, policy analyst for theWestern Balkans and Turkey at the European Parliament, said it is clear that maximum “demonization” of “the West” and the EU will remain high on the agenda of the referendum campaign of the government for “yes” votes as a way to “unite” Turks. De Munter said he was speaking for himself and not representing the European Parliament.
“However, the relationship with the EU is not an à la carte menu where you can unleash your demons whenever it suits you and then go more or less back to normality when you decide so because you suddenly need the Europe that you despise in most of your statements,” De Munter told Arab News.
“For example, when bashing the European Parliament, sometimes using very harsh language, Turkey should also realize that it needs that very same Parliament for visa liberalization,” he said.