Trump-Xi meeting watched for clues of future relationship

BEIJING: Chinese President Xi Jinping probably will not give President Donald Trump a round of golf during their first face-to-face meeting this week, but he may find it worthwhile to ensure his American counterpart does not feel like he is leaving empty-handed.

Some view the informal venue of the summit Thursday and Friday — Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida — as a sign that neither side anticipates important outcomes.

Trump, however, tweeted last week that he expects “a very difficult” meeting, and on Friday said: “We are going to get down to some very serious business,” referencing what he believes is China’s negative impact on the US economy, especially manufacturing jobs.

China, for its part, has remained largely sanguine about the event, with Vice Foreign Minister Zheng Zeguang telling reporters that “both sides look forward to a successful meeting so that a correct direction can be set for the growth of bilateral relations.”

Like many nations, China is still grappling with Trump’s mercurial nature after the relative transparency and predictability of the bilateral relationship under Trump’s predecessor Barack Obama.

Both during his campaign and after his victory, Trump complained repeatedly over China’s allegedly unfair trade practices, its perceived lack of assistance in reining in North Korea’s nuclear ambitions and its drive to cement control over the South China Sea.

Some analysts believe Xi might be willing to hand Trump a symbolic victory on trade to put a positive spin on the meeting.

“Xi probably cannot accommodate Trump on sovereignty and security issues, but he has a lot of leeway on economics,” said Robert Sutter, a China expert at George Washington University in Washington.

Yet even if Xi is able to offer Trump deliverables, he will still have to deal with “a restless US president valuing unpredictability and seeking advantage for his agenda going forward,” Sutter said.

Trump was seen as moving trade even more to the forefront when he signed a pair of executive orders Friday focused on reducing the trade deficit. Coupled together, the orders appeared to be a symbolic shot at China, which accounted for the vast bulk — $347 billion — of last year’s $502 billion trade deficit.

While aides insisted the timing was coincidental, the administration touted the moves as evidence of it taking an aggressive but analytical approach to closing a trade gap that is largely due to the influx of goods from China.

Still, Trump told the Financial Times newspaper that during his meeting with Xi, he doesn’t “want to talk about tariffs yet, perhaps the next time we meet.”

Having suffered a major blow with the failure of health care reform, Trump will be seeking to claim some kind of victory in his encounter with Xi, said June Teufel Dreyer, professor of political science at the University of Miami.

Trump’s comments on trade and other issues “portend some hard bargaining,” Dreyer said.

She added, however, that slowing economic growth in China could limit Xi’s options for negotiating on trade.

“So the stage is set for a battle royal,” Dreyer said.

Meanwhile, China continues to oppose the tough measures demanded of it to address former close ally North Korea, fearing a collapse of the Pyongyang regime would bring a crush of refugees and possibly US and South Korean troops on its border.

Trump told the Financial Times the US is prepared to act alone if China does not take a tougher stand against North Korea’s nuclear program.

“China has great influence over North Korea,” Trump said. “And China will either decide to help us with North Korea, or they will not. And if they do that will be very good for China, and if they don’t it will not be good for anyone.”