Theresa May’s pyrrhic victory
expected in 2020, it was possible that some unforeseen development in the three years might allow Labour to revive. By bringing the election forward, May has brought forward Labour’s disintegration as well, and virtually eliminated the possibility of its revival.
When the Labour Party collapses after its defeat in June, a realignment of progressive British politics will become almost certain. This realignment, uniting disillusioned Labour politicians and voters with Liberal Democrats, Greens, and perhaps Scottish and Welsh nationalists, is likely to produce an opposition that is much more effective than May currently faces, even if it has fewer parliamentary seats.
By the time of the next general election, most likely in 2022, Britain’s internationalist and progressive political forces will have had five years to prepare themselves to oppose May’s conservatism and English nationalism. By that time, the Conservatives will have been in power for three Parliaments and 12 years. That is about how long it has typically taken Britain’s political pendulum to swing between right and left.
Moreover, owing to the extended transition period for Brexit made possible by the early election, it will only be around 2022 that the full consequences of terminating EU membership come into view, together with the contradictions in the Brexit coalition between libertarian free traders and socially conservative nationalists and protectionists. Meanwhile, efforts to negotiate free-trade agreements with the US and China will have revealed the weakness of Britain’s bargaining position. As a result, public opinion about the wisdom of Brexit could shift substantially by 2022. In any case, the changing relationship with Europe will be the core issue around which Britain’s socially liberal and internationalist political forces can coalesce after their defeat.
Suppose that, in the meantime, the EU continues its economic recovery. Suppose further that, after the French and German elections this year, a stronger FrancoGerman partnership drives the euro zone toward the closer political integration that is obviously needed for the single currency to succeed, whereas Denmark, Sweden and Poland make clear that they have no intention of ever joining the euro. By 2022, British voters could well decide that re-joining a twin-track EU is much more attractive than pleading for a junior partnership with the US, not to mention China. That is the third reason why Britain’s Conservative Euroskeptics could end up regretting their imminent electoral triumph.
Whatever happens, the decisive battle in the war for Britain’s long-term future will not be this year’s easy victory for May. It will be the clash, five years from now, between nationalist conservatism and a new outward-looking progressive opposition. Anatole Kaletsky is chief economist and co-chairman of Gavekal Dragonomics and the author of “Capitalism 4.0: The Birth of a New Economy.” Project Syndicate