Is Hamza bin Laden Al-Qaeda’s next leader?

Al-Qaeda has been greatly weakened financially and operationally over the past 15 years, due to global initiatives against terror financing and unabated attacks against its leaders, mainly in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Yemen.

The killing of Osama bin Laden struck a sharp blow to the organization’s internal structure. It is believed that Al-Qaeda today is more de- centralized. Ayman Al-Zawahiri’s lackluster persona as the current leader and his constant hiding has added to the group’s weakness.

Its branches and offshoots today are caught up in their local agendas beyond Al-Zawahiri’s influence, as seen in the Nusra Front in Syria splitting from Al-Qaeda and claiming to be a local, independent body with the same ideology. AQAP is focusing on Yemen, though it has planned attacks in the West, including the US and France.

In most of Hamza’s audio messages, he refers to Al-Zawahiri as his “emir” (leader), implying that Al-Zawahiri is a legitimate heir to his father’s legacy and that all Al-Qaeda branches should view him as such. Hamza’s audio messages are likely to have had Al-Zawahiri’s consent, which indicates that the former is still under the latter’s shadow. It is more about giving Al-Zawahiri the power he needs than preparing Hamza as the next leader of Al-Qaeda.

Hamza has released many audio messages since 2015. In most of them, he appeared very similar to his father in terms of the issues he addressed and the way he spoke, using the same tone and phrases. Although Hamza was kept very close by his father, perhaps preparing him to carry on his mission, being his son is not enough to include him in the line of contenders if Al-Zawahiri dies; other senior Al-Qaeda members are already in line.