Gold heading for first monthly drop since December

LONDON: Gold edged higher on Wednesday as the dollar dipped and simmering geopolitical tensions lent support, though the metal was heading for its first monthly drop since December amid an increased chance of a US interest rate rise next month.

The dollar dipped versus a currency basket, with sterling recovering after a poll showed the Britain’s ruling Conservative party still in the lead, overriding a previous projection of a hung Parliament in elections next week. Still, the dollar’s losses were limited given US consumer spending and inflation data published on Tuesday, which pointed to improved domestic demand that should allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next month. Higher rates reduce demand for non-interest bearing bullion and boost the US dollar, making dollar-priced gold costlier for non-US investors.

“The market has been over-enthusiastic in terms of the weakness (seen in gold). Once the rate hike happens, people will focus on political uncertainty and on the physical support (for gold),” said Hamza Khan, head of commodities strategy at ING.

“Fundamentally, we favor the upside. We see prices at $1,350 (an ounce) for the third quarter and $1,250 for the second quarter.”

Spot gold edged up 0.2 percent to $1,264.81 per ounce at 1346 GMT. It closed 0.3 percent lower on Tuesday after rising to a one-month high of $1,270.47. For the month, bullion is down 0.2 percent. US gold futures were up 0.2 percent at $1,264.50. Traders see an 86.6 percent chance of a quarter-point rate hike at the Fed’s June meeting, Thomson Reuters data shows.

But some market participants say signs of softness in some economic data have raised questions about whether the Fed can hike interest rates two more times this year and begin shrinking its balance sheet.