A fraction of Mosul, Raqqa ’no less challenging’
BEIRUT: A month into the battle to capture Daesh’s self-styled capital, US-backed Syrian forces have encircled the militants inside Raqqa, breached their fortified defenses and inched closer to the heart of the city. Yet the battle has barely begun.
More than 2,000 militants are holed up with their families and tens of thousands of civilians in Raqqa’s center, the city’s most densely populated quarters.
Although a fraction the size of Iraq’s Mosul, Raqqa’s urban warfare may prove as grueling, and those fighting the extremists risk being dragged into side battles with other groups in Syria’s complex civil war.
In Raqqa’s case, the Syrian Kurdish militia that is the main US ally against Daesh has been rattled by Turkey’s mobilization on the other side of the country.
Kurdish officials warned that Turkey’s moves threaten to derail the Raqqa campaign by forcing the Kurdish militia to redeploy to defend its enclave.
Syria observers also point to the lack of capabilities and training of the US-backed Syrian fighters, known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), compared to the Iraqi troops battling Daesh militants in Mosul and the surrounding Nineveh province since August.
“So (Mosul) is actually a yearlong campaign. I don’t think Raqqa will take that long, but it will take time,” US special envoy Brett McGurk told the Dubai-based Al-Aan TV during a visit to the Raqqa front last month. He refused to specify a timeline.
Another issue is who will run Raqqa once the militants are driven out. The area’s Arab population is likely to oppose any control by the Kurds, who are the dominant faction of the SDF. The US-led coalition has said a local council formed by the SDF will govern.
Meanwhile, the Syrian regime has vowed it will rule Raqqa, and its forces nearby could try to take advantage of the shifting situation and step in.
The coalition last week estimated some 2,500 militants remain in Raqqa. Senior members and foreigners are believed to have evacuated, and most of those who remain are believed to be Syrian fighters and tactical commanders.
They have used many of the same tactics as in Mosul, showing a similar level of organization and discipline. They deploy suicide car bombs and armed drones against advancing fighters and launch street battles in the dead of night. They carry out surprise counterattacks in areas already recaptured by the SDF.
“This defense is designed to draw out the fight and drive up the cost for the coalition and the local population,” said Jennifer Cafarella, a Syria expert at the Institute for the Study of War.
Last year’s battle for the northern town of Manbij, which is half the size of Raqqa but was an important transit hub for Daesh, lasted over two months and ended with the militants retreating with hundreds of civilians as hostages.
In this case, the militants so far appear determined to fight to the end. If that is the case, the SDF will have to “exterminate everyone before seizing control of Raqqa,” said Rami Abdurrahman, head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
Syrian President Bashar Assad’s ally Russia has also made clear it opposes giving the Raqqa militants any exit corridor because they would then head to Deir Ezzor, where the Syrian government is waging its own campaign against Daesh, Abdurrahman said.