Can South Korea save the day?

crisis is South Korea. But the South has so far straddled the line between antagonism and diplomacy.

On the one hand, it agrees with Trump on the need for tougher sanctions and military readiness, including full deployment of the US anti-ballistic missile defense system known as Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD).

On the other hand, it has indicated its willingness to engage in joint military talks and diplomatic dialogue with North Korea; it even invited Kim’s government to participate in a joint Independence Day celebration (the North refused, citing the planned UFG.)

South Korea now needs to take a stronger approach. Rather than shove a weak opponent into a corner and risk them lashing out, the South should formally request an indefinite postponement of this year’s UFG, which would be counterproductive and is not essential at this time.

The US and South Korea already held massive joint exercises involving about 320,000 troops — more than six times the combined troop strength of the planned UFG — in March and April this year, and in 2016. During that period, the US also deployed a strike group, including the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson, to the region, saying it would counter “reckless acts of aggression” with “whatever methods the US wants to take.”

The US also docked one of the largest nuclear-powered submarines in the world, the USS Michigan, in South Korea, and held “decapitation exercises” to prepare troops to infiltrate the North and eliminate Kim and his ruling cohort. Simply put, this month’s UFG is far from critical to the US-South Korea alliance.

By suspending them, the South would have an opportunity to pursue military-tomilitary dialogue with the North while reinstating basic communications channels, including hotlines, which were cut off early last year. The South should also urge the North to coordinate the commemoration of Independence Day, a near-sacred day for all Koreans, as a symbolic gesture of a unified Korean past and possible future.

South Korean President Moon Jae In’s administration has already made such overtures, to no avail. But it may be more successful if it can use a postponed UFG as leverage. In the event, the South would emerge as a legitimate broker in the conflict between the US and the North, rather than as a US lackey, as the Kim regime likes to view it. That would greatly improve the prospects of a negotiation among the three actors once things have cooled down.

South Korea, with its affinity to both the US and the North, is uniquely suited to defuse the current situation. The stakes are too high for it not to try.

Katharine H.S. Moon, a non-resident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, is Wasserman chair of Asian studies and professor of political science at Wellesley College. ©Project Syndicate

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