Turkey, Iran, Iraq join forces to thwart Kurdish referendum
ANKARA: Ankara, Tehran and Baghdad on Thursday warned of possible countermeasures against the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) if it goes ahead with its independence referendum for Iraqi Kurdistan.
The Iraqi, Turkish and Iranian foreign ministers issued a joint statement underlying their concerns that the referendum, scheduled for Sept. 25, could trigger regional conflicts.
“The three ministers emphasized that the referendum will not be beneficial for the Kurds and the KRG, and agreed, in this regard, to consider taking countermeasures in coordination,” the statement read, without elaborating on the measures.
The statement urged the international community to intervene, reiterated the ministers’ commitment to maintaining Iraq’s territorial and political unity, and described the referendum as unconstitutional.
Ahmad Majidyar, resident fellow and director of the IranObserved project at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said the joint statement means to send a strong signal to the US and European powers that if they do not stop the referendum, the consequences will be dire.
“Both Turkey and Iran have threatened retaliatory measures, if the KRG goes ahead with the referendum. But it’s too soon to determine if their tough rhetoric will translate into action,” Majidyar told Arab News.
But despite recent steps by Tehran and Ankara to reconcile their differences and cooperate more on regional issues, there is deep distrust between them, he added.
“Turkey, for example, wouldn’t want to cut all relations with the KRG and allow Iran and other regional countries to fill the void,” he said.
Although Ankara has legitimate fears about the vote, Majidyar said it has to consider both its strategic and economic interests, as Iraqi Kurdistan exports more than 500,000 barrels of oil per day via Turkey to the Mediterranean.
“Irbil and Ankara have also had close military cooperation, and Turkey has military bases in Iraqi Kurdistan,” he added. “It’s unlikely that Ankara will sever all relations with the KRG, even if the latter proceeds with the referendum next week.”
Mehmet Seyfettin Erol, head of the Ankara-based think tank ANKASAM, told Arab News that the joint statement is an ultimatum to the KRG, and shows its three neighbors’ determination to coordinate against a perceived common threat.
Gulriz Sen, an Iran expert at TOBB University in Ankara, said the statement demonstrates a strong alignment of interests in opposing Kurdish demands and aspirations for independence.
“Even though maintaining the territorial integrity of Iraq has always been a common objective for Turkey and Iran, regional geopolitics so far have drawn Turkey and Iran apart by deepening their rivalry in the Syrian and Iraqi crises,” Sen told Arab News.