Total chief predicts US shale oil industry to see wave of investment

LONDON: The US shale industry will see another wave of investment as producers are betting strongly against a fall in oil prices, the CEO of Total, Patrick Pouyanne, said on Wednesday.

Speaking at the Oil & Money conference in London, he said he expected global oil demand to grow strongly again this year, by up to 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd).

“Our US colleagues are hedging like mad at $56 a barrel so we will see another wave of investment in US shale, no doubt about it,” Pouyanne said.

A sharp fall in investment since oil prices collapsed in 2014 has led to a drop in development of new projects, which could spark an oil supply shortage after 2020, Pouyanne said.

Pouyanne said the rate of final investment decisions (FIDs) in exploration and production had shrunk too much since 2015.

“The number of FIDs from 2010-2014 averaged 35 FIDs per year ... to add potentially 2.5 million bpd,” he said.

“Since 2015, it’s 12 per year to add 1 million bpd — that’s probably not enough. Post-2020, we will face an issue with these lower numbers of FIDs. It takes time to bring new capacity to production.”

He later said Total expects to give a green light by the yearend for the development of the Libra offshore field in Brazil, which will produce up to 150,000 bpd.

On the OPEC side, the oil chief sees Russia and Saudi Arabia extending production cuts.

OPEC and several nonOPEC producers agreed late last year on a six-month output-cutting deal from January to tackle a global glut. The deal has been extended until March 2018.

A visit by the Saudi king to Moscow recently “is a clear signal (that) it is in the interest of both countries to support the market. I will not be surprised to see the extension,” Pouyanne said.