Filling the vacuum that Daesh once occupied

of its fighting men, and the ease with which civilians were absorbed by Daesh.

From the Syrian side of the border, the conflict to uproot the group has been caught in the war of regional and international powers that has delayed efforts to reach a peace settlement. The US and its allies have never controlled so much of Syria; the self-governing Kurdish region to the north, and rebels to the south and east of the country, are client forces of the coalition.

But the Syrian Army, backed by Iran’s Quds Force and Russian air cover, is making great gains. It is taking control of settlements near the Iraqi border and will, in time, form a quasi-border guard to maintain a land route to Iran. Where Daesh’s violent proto-state foundered, Iranian-backed militias are actively seeking to lodge themselves so as to destabilize Syria going forward.

The specter of the Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) increasing in influence with Daesh’s collapse is problematic, as it perpetuates the weak central government authority that led to regional instability. Now that the Americans and Russians have agreed to “de-escalation zones,” any upset in the existing balance of power may destabilize Syria and Iraq further.

The Iranian-backed gains in Syria and northwest Iraq are striking, and go some way to highlighting the White House’s firmer criticisms of Tehran. As all sides fought the common enemy in Daesh, territorial gains took less precedence. But with the heavily armed PMU, and Kurdish and rebel groups holding disputed territory, the probability of further conflict is great.

Iranian-backed militias are now pressing for control of the oil-rich region around Deir Ezzor, which could be a potential flashpoint for conflict between the uncomfortable alliance that had been combatting Daesh.

In Iraq and Syria, a return to the circumstances that led to the creation of Daesh must be avoided. Rebels without a cause frequently become tomorrow’s militants. Recent events have shown that Daesh’s complete eradication is required to prevent its resurgence locally, and to limit its ability to inspire and conduct acts of terror overseas.

Zaid M. Belbagi is a political commentator, and an adviser to private clients between London and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Twitter: @Moulay_Zaid

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