After Raqqa, Daesh will be more virulent

Libya, parts of Nigeria and Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula. It is noteworthy that in Syria and Iraq, where Daesh has experienced significant setbacks, it is still able to carry out lethal bombings in Damascus and Baghdad.

Civil conflicts in Syria, Yemen and Libya have destroyed the infrastructure of governance and civic life, leaving hundreds of thousands of people displaced and destitute.

Several thousand residents of Raqqa are eking out a miserable existence in inadequately funded and poorly organized makeshift camps. While the US and its allies are focused on war, they have little interest in reconstruction and nation-building projects, so “liberated” towns are becoming recruiting spaces for new jihadists.

Besides weak central authority in Arab states experiencing conflict, regional sectarian and ethnic divisions will ensure that extremist groups continue to attract youths propelled by a sense of grievance and victimhood.

For instance, in the ongoing fight against Daesh remnants in Iraq, a leading role is being played by sections of the Iran-backed militias, some of them using prominent Shiite symbols and slogans. This is bound to encourage some Sunni youths in the country to join extremist groups.

The most dangerous aspect of extremist violence is the role of lonewolf actors who attack soft targets in various parts of the world, particularly Europe. Their earlier activities do not indicate any direct association with radical groups; they seem to be indoctrinated via social media. Though several lone-wolf attacks have taken place in the West, no clear profile of the perpetrators has emerged that would enable security experts to pre-empt their attacks.

Two years ago, former CIA chief Leon Panetta was quoted as saying: “I think we’re looking at kind of a 30-year war… one that will extend beyond Islamic State (Daesh) to include emerging threats in Nigeria, Somalia, Yemen, Libya and elsewhere.” This seems to be a very likely prospect.

QTalmiz Ahmad, a former diplomat, holds the Ram Sathe Chair for International Studies, Symbiosis International University, Pune, India.